TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 28?
polymarket

#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 28?

Volume:
$7,314

OpenAI

 - Polymarket

OpenAI - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 2:25 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,175
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$586
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$577
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$536
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$464
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$441
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$407
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$275
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 9, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 9, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the current implied probabilities for different outcomes regarding which AI lab will hold the largest market share by the week of September 28. You’ll find the odds displayed, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. The dashboard also shows the 24-hour trading volume, indicating how much activity there has been in this market recently. Currently, the total volume is $7,314 with $1,166 traded in the last 24 hours.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions reflected in this market to specific analyst forecasts. However, the collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket offers a unique perspective, potentially incorporating information and insights not readily captured in traditional analyses. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and external forecasts could signal areas where the market anticipates different outcomes or assigns different levels of confidence to various scenarios regarding the OpenRouter AI market share. This market provides a real-time, quantifiable assessment of expectations.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a share reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of each scenario. The current trading volume suggests significant interest in this market, and the price fluctuations reflect the evolving perceptions of market participants.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the reported market share data for AI labs as determined by OpenRouter for the week of September 28. This data will be assessed to identify which AI lab holds the largest share, and that outcome will determine the settlement of this market. Traders should monitor news and data releases from OpenRouter as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about potential catalysts.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Major announcements from leading AI labs regarding new models, partnerships, or funding rounds could shift perceptions of their market position. Unexpected regulatory changes impacting the AI industry could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any shifts in the overall demand for AI services, or changes in the competitive landscape, could lead to adjustments in the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on industry news and OpenRouter’s data releases for potential catalysts.