TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?
polymarket

#3 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 19?

Volume:
$36,482

OpenAI

 - Polymarket

OpenAI - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 2:53 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,744
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Google

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,838
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,228
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,028
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,025
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$940
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$460
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the third highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 26, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 30, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 19 to October 25, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 3rd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this market tracks predictions about which AI lab will hold the largest market share within the OpenRouter ecosystem as of the week of October 19. The dashboard displays the current odds for each potential leader, along with the 24-hour trading volume and historical price movements. Currently, the total volume for this market is $36,482, with $1,301 traded in the last 24 hours. Traders on Polymarket are actively forecasting the competitive landscape of AI models available through OpenRouter, making it a dynamic indicator of market sentiment.

Currently, the odds on Polymarket reflect a different outlook than some recent analyst reports regarding the OpenRouter AI market share. While some analysts predict a continued dominance of established labs, this market suggests a potentially more competitive field. It's important to note that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured in traditional analyst forecasts. This divergence highlights the value of considering diverse sources of information when assessing future outcomes for this market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, influenced by news, data releases, and overall market sentiment surrounding the leading AI labs and their performance on OpenRouter. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments to expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on the reported market share data for AI labs within the OpenRouter ecosystem for the week of October 19. The resolution will reflect which AI lab demonstrably holds the largest share, as determined by OpenRouter’s official data. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the market’s predictions.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before Oct 27, 2026. Major announcements regarding new model releases from leading AI labs, significant performance benchmarks on OpenRouter, or changes in OpenRouter’s platform policies could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected partnerships or funding rounds for specific AI labs could also influence the odds. Finally, any news related to the competitive landscape of AI model providers, or shifts in developer adoption within the OpenRouter ecosystem, are likely to move this market.