TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume:
$16,919

4.56% or above

 - Kalshi

4.56% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.56% or above

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,705
N/A
N/A
$517
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.64% or above

View
0%
66%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,089
N/A
N/A
$427
Settled
No
kalshi

4.84% or above

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,027
N/A
N/A
$842
Settled
No
kalshi

4.58% or above

View
0%
62%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,013
N/A
N/A
$641
Settled
No
kalshi

4.6% or above

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,522
N/A
N/A
$546
Settled
No
kalshi

4.88% or above

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$950
N/A
N/A
$909
Settled
No
kalshi

4.62% or above

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$934
N/A
N/A
$313
Settled
No
kalshi

5.02% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$813
N/A
N/A
$730
Settled
No
kalshi

4.86% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$478
N/A
N/A
$277
Settled
No
kalshi

4.94% or above

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$390
N/A
N/A
$329
Settled
No
kalshi

4.98% or above

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$339
N/A
N/A
$339
Settled
No
kalshi

4.72% or above

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$302
N/A
N/A
$301
Settled
No
kalshi

4.8% or above

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$272
N/A
N/A
$232
Settled
No
kalshi

4.82% or above

View
0%
22%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$253
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
No
kalshi

4.92% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$249
N/A
N/A
$129
Settled
No
kalshi

4.78% or above

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

5% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
$139
Settled
No
kalshi

4.7% or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$114
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

4.76% or above

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$39
N/A
N/A
$22
Settled
No
kalshi

4.9% or above

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

4.96% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

5.04% or above

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
No
kalshi

4.74% or above

View
0%
42%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

4.68% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.66% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key benchmark in short-term U.S. debt markets at a specific future date. It reflects expectations about interest rate movements influenced by economic policies and market conditions. Outcomes depend on whether the observed rate surpasses various predefined thresholds.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 2-Year U.S. Treasury as of October 30, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the yield exceeds a specific percentage (e.g., 4.75%, 4.77%, up to 5.03%), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share identical expiration rules: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day after the yield data is released for October 30, 2026, or one week after October 30, 2026. This structure creates a series of escalating yield thresholds, allowing participants to bet on different levels of potential rate movement.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 2026 US Treasury yield market displays the current implied probability of various yield ranges on October 30, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how these probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the total volume traded in this market, currently at $16,919, and the 24-hour volume, which is $2,316. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to future interest rates, providing a real-time view of expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast of where the 2026 US Treasury yield will land. It’s often insightful to compare this market’s implied probabilities to those offered by traditional financial analysts and economic polls. Do analysts anticipate a similar trajectory for interest rates, or are there significant discrepancies? Examining these differences can reveal whether the wisdom of the crowd, as expressed through this market, aligns with or diverges from expert opinions on macroeconomic conditions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different yield ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that yield range being the correct outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, these prices adjust, dynamically updating the implied probability distribution. This creates a forward-looking indicator of market expectations for US Treasury yields.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 2-Year US Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the result. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual yield reported on the resolution date.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements regarding interest rates, and unexpected shifts in economic growth forecasts are all likely to influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical events and major shifts in global financial conditions could also play a role. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the fluctuations in the 2026 US Treasury yield market as it approaches its resolution date.