TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$245,601,049

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,985,204,718

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,897,405,322

408,349

Markets across

39,583

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,443

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?

Volume:
$3,739

4.63% or above

 - Kalshi

4.63% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$553
N/A
N/A
$553
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.59% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$548
N/A
N/A
$548
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$548
N/A
N/A
$548
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$145
N/A
N/A
$112
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.51% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.53% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.55% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.57% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.71% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,054
N/A
N/A
$855
Settled
No
kalshi

4.73% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$638
N/A
N/A
$454
Settled
No
kalshi

4.75% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$211
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
Settled
No
kalshi

4.79% or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

4.77% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key indicator in the U.S. debt market on a specific future date. It reflects expectations about interest rate movements influenced by economic policies and market conditions. Outcomes are determined by comparing the actual yield to various predefined thresholds.

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specific threshold on October 26, 2026. Thresholds range incrementally from 4.50% to 4.78%, with each market corresponding to a unique, higher threshold. All markets share a uniform expiration timeline: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official data release for October 26, 2026, or one week after October 26, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on the likelihood of the yield reaching or surpassing various levels, with each threshold representing a distinct level of market expectation regarding interest rate pressures.