TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 23, 2026?

Volume:
$11,854

4.67% or above

 - Kalshi

4.67% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
100%
54%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,550
N/A
N/A
$778
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,356
N/A
N/A
$1,150
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
100%
80%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,030
N/A
N/A
$578
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$662
N/A
N/A
$655
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
$655
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.71% or above

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,813
N/A
N/A
$445
Settled
No
kalshi

4.73% or above

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,261
N/A
N/A
$655
Settled
No
kalshi

4.77% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$937
N/A
N/A
$937
Settled
No
kalshi

4.75% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$818
N/A
N/A
$818
Settled
No
kalshi

4.89% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$708
Settled
No
kalshi

4.85% or above

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$398
N/A
N/A
$398
Settled
No
kalshi

4.87% or above

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$367
N/A
N/A
$367
Settled
No
kalshi

4.79% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

4.81% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.83% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the yield of two-year U.S. Treasury notes by specific percentage thresholds on a set date. Each market represents a different yield level, allowing participants to speculate on whether interest rates will surpass various benchmarks. The outcomes are determined by actual yield data released on the specified day.

Kalshi

These markets collectively assess whether the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury will exceed various specified thresholds on October 23, 2026. Each individual market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.60% to 4.88%. If the published yield for that date meets or exceeds the threshold designated for a specific market, that market resolves positively. All markets share a common expiration protocol: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official data release for October 23, 2026, or one week after October 23, 2026. This structure enables granular speculation on precise yield levels within a defined timeframe, with consistent timing rules across all thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 2-year Treasury yield market tracks the current implied probability of various yield levels on October 23, 2026. You’ll find a dynamic price chart reflecting traders’ expectations, along with the total volume traded – currently $11,854 – and 24-hour volume, which is $6,673. This allows you to see how sentiment is shifting and where the most activity is focused within this market. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the collective forecast for the 2-year Treasury yield.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the 2-year Treasury yield. While many analysts predict a moderate increase in yields over the next two years, this market shows a wider range of potential outcomes being priced in by traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets incorporate a broader set of information and incentives than typical surveys or individual analyst reports. This difference highlights the unique insights offered by a forward-looking, incentivized forecasting mechanism like this market.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different yield levels. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific yield occurring on Oct 23, 2026. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, which drives the price discovery process. This creates a dynamic and efficient way to gauge market expectations for the 2-year Treasury yield, and the volume traded indicates the level of conviction behind those expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 2-year US Treasury yield is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider at the close of trading on that day. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contract’s yield level matches the actual yield at resolution. This allows for a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome, based on publicly available data.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly move this market. Changes in Federal Reserve policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, would have a substantial impact. Unexpected inflation data, strong or weak employment reports, and geopolitical events are also likely to influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any shifts in the overall economic outlook or investor risk appetite could lead to significant price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding how the forecast for the 2-year Treasury yield evolves.