TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 19, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 19, 2026?

Volume:
$8,669

4.77% or above

 - Kalshi

4.77% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.77% or above

View
100%
84%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,261
N/A
N/A
$786
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,067
N/A
N/A
$551
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.73% or above

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$735
N/A
N/A
$590
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.71% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$628
N/A
N/A
$167
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.75% or above

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$395
N/A
N/A
$286
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$288
N/A
N/A
$288
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$51
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.79% or above

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,279
N/A
N/A
$970
Settled
No
kalshi

4.81% or above

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,268
N/A
N/A
$700
Settled
No
kalshi

4.89% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$525
N/A
N/A
$525
Settled
No
kalshi

4.87% or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$488
N/A
N/A
$294
Settled
No
kalshi

4.83% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$401
Settled
No
kalshi

4.85% or above

View
0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$232
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key indicator in U.S. financial markets on a specific future date. It reflects expectations about interest rate movements influenced by economic policies and market conditions. Outcomes are determined by comparing the actual yield to various threshold levels at that point in time.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the par yield for the 2Y U.S. Treasury exceeds a specific threshold on October 19, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging incrementally from 4.60% to 4.88%. If the actual yield is above the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Expiration occurs at the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM ET on the first business day following the official release of the relevant data, or one week after October 19, 2026. All markets share these identical expiration rules, ensuring consistent timing across all threshold-based outcomes.