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2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 16, 2026?

Volume:
$8,803

4.73% or above

 - Kalshi

4.73% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.73% or above

View
100%
38%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,406
N/A
N/A
$653
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.71% or above

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$986
N/A
N/A
$586
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.69% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$710
N/A
N/A
$410
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.63% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$326
N/A
N/A
$326
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.65% or above

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$248
N/A
N/A
$248
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.75% or above

View
0%
69%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$574
Settled
No
kalshi

4.89% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$717
N/A
N/A
$565
Settled
No
kalshi

4.87% or above

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$715
N/A
N/A
$496
Settled
No
kalshi

4.83% or above

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$576
N/A
N/A
$472
Settled
No
kalshi

4.77% or above

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$541
N/A
N/A
$475
Settled
No
kalshi

4.79% or above

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$462
N/A
N/A
$326
Settled
No
kalshi

4.81% or above

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
$302
Settled
No
kalshi

4.85% or above

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$321
N/A
N/A
$314
Settled
No
kalshi

4.91% or above

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$135
N/A
N/A
$129
Settled
No
kalshi

4.99% or above

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
$61
Settled
No
kalshi

4.93% or above

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

4.95% or above

View
0%
83%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

4.61% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.67% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

4.97% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.01% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.03% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.05% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.07% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

5.09% or above

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This set of markets tracks potential movements in the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield by setting various threshold levels for analysis on a specific future date. Each threshold represents a different level of yield that, if exceeded, indicates a significant shift in market expectations regarding interest rates and economic policy. The outcomes provide granular insights into the likelihood of varying yield levels being achieved.

Kalshi

These markets collectively assess whether the par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury will exceed specified threshold levels on October 16, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct yield threshold, incrementally increasing from 4.60% to 4.88%. If the published yield for that date meets or exceeds the threshold defined in a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets share a common expiration timeline, closing at the earlier of two possible times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official data release for October 16, 2026, or one week after October 16, 2026. This structure enables participants to evaluate the probability of different yield levels being reached, offering a detailed perspective on potential interest rate movements.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 2026 US Treasury yield market tracks the current price of contracts representing predictions about the yield on October 16, 2026. You'll find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, along with the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $2,931. The total volume traded to date is $8,770. This allows traders to see how sentiment is shifting and gauge the perceived probability of different yield levels as the resolution date approaches.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges for the 2026 US Treasury yield, this market represents a probability distribution of potential outcomes. It’s important to note that prediction market prices reflect not just what traders *think* will happen, but also their assessment of the risks and uncertainties involved. Discrepancies between the market price and analyst forecasts can highlight differing opinions on economic conditions and Federal Reserve policy.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and offers, and trades occur when they match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that specific yield occurring at the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their assessments based on new information, leading to dynamic price movements. The current price indicates what traders believe is the fair value of a contract predicting a specific yield, incorporating their expectations about future economic conditions and monetary policy.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 2-Year US Treasury yield on October 16, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider. The contract corresponding to the yield closest to the reported value will be considered the winning outcome. Traders should monitor economic indicators and Federal Reserve announcements leading up to the resolution date, as these factors will heavily influence the final yield.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), will be closely watched. Federal Reserve meetings and announcements regarding interest rate policy are also major catalysts. Unexpected economic shocks, such as geopolitical events or a recession, could also cause substantial price movements. Furthermore, shifts in the yield curve and investor sentiment towards risk assets will likely influence trading activity in this market.