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$1,869,293,526

411,051

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4,377

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2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

2Y US Treasury yield on Nov 2, 2026?

Oct 30, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$2,272
Volume 24h:
$1,391
576%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$2,023
189%

4.48% or above

 - Kalshi

4.48% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

Time left: 00h:05m:06s

Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.47% on Nov 2, 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.48% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 40¢
39¢
N/A
$6
0%
N/A
$6
5m
Active
kalshi

4.5% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 40¢
39¢
N/A
$6
0%
N/A
$6
5m
Active
kalshi

4.56% or above

Trade
66%
Yes 95¢No 95¢
90¢
N/A
$96
0%
N/A
$84
5m
Active
kalshi

4.46% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 40¢
40¢
N/A
$207
0%
N/A
$207
5m
Active
kalshi

4.52% or above

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 40¢
40¢
N/A
$25
0%
N/A
$25
5m
Active
kalshi

4.54% or above

Trade
65%
Yes 99¢No 100¢
99¢
N/A
$4
0%
N/A
$4
5m
Active
kalshi

4.58% or above

Trade
45%
17%
Yes 98¢No 100¢
98¢
N/A
$807
177%
N/A
$639
5m
Active
kalshi

4.6% or above

Trade
24%
42%
Yes 75¢No 100¢
75¢
N/A
$377
142%
N/A
$318
5m
Active
kalshi

4.66% or above

Trade
19%
10%
Yes 99¢No 100¢
99¢
N/A
$114
14%
N/A
$114
5m
Active
kalshi

4.62% or above

Trade
18%
12%
Yes 98¢No 100¢
98¢
N/A
$430
255%
N/A
$420
5m
Active
kalshi

4.64% or above

Trade
13%
Yes 99¢No 100¢
99¢
N/A
$200
0%
N/A
$200
5m
Active
kalshi

4.68% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
95¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5m
Active
kalshi

4.7% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
98¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5m
Active
kalshi

4.72% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
99¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5m
Active
kalshi

4.74% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
99¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
5m
Active
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of 2-year U.S. Treasury yields against various threshold levels on a specific future date. It reflects investor expectations about interest rate movements influenced by economic indicators and monetary policy decisions. The outcome depends on whether the yield surpasses one of several incrementally higher benchmarks.

Kalshi

The event consists of multiple markets, each with a distinct threshold for the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield on November 2, 2026. For any given market to resolve as 'Yes,' the par yield must exceed a specific percentage threshold, which varies across markets in increments of two basis points. All markets share identical expiration mechanics: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for that date, or one week after November 2, 2026. This structure allows participants to speculate on the likelihood of the yield reaching or surpassing each specified level, with resolution contingent upon the actual published yield data for the stated date.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market participants, through this market, are expressing a strong belief that the 2-year Treasury yield will be above a certain level by Nov 2, 2026. This contrasts with traditional analyst forecasts, which often present a range of possibilities and may be based on different modeling assumptions. While analyst predictions are valuable, this market offers a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and reflecting real-time expectations about future economic conditions. It’s important to note that these are distinct sources of information, each with its own strengths and limitations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2-year Treasury yield. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. Currently, the most likely outcome, according to Kalshi, is that the yield will be above a certain level, with a chance percentage of 99.0%.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and used to determine whether the contracts will pay out. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on the latest economic data and market expectations. The market’s resolution will reflect the actual yield at the specified time, providing a clear and objective outcome.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, would be a major driver. Inflation data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), will also be closely watched. Unexpected economic growth or recessionary signals, as indicated by GDP reports and employment figures, could shift market sentiment. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions could also play a role, influencing investor risk appetite and the demand for U.S. Treasury bonds.