TOTAL VOLUME:
$115.9b
24H VOL:
$78,242,292
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,351,118,393
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,123,310,921
314,014
Markets across
30,653
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,372
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
- Polymarket
Google - Polymarket
40%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Vol.
$3k
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
$
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Currently, odds from this market differ noticeably from some analyst forecasts. While analysts may lean toward varied expectations, traders on Polymarket set prices based on their collective view of upcoming developments. The gap between these two can shift as new information emerges, making this market a live barometer of crowd-sourced sentiment versus expert opinion.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch for official announcements or widely reported confirmations that match the defined criteria for resolution, at which point the market settles automatically.
Key signals include official statements from the AI Lab, analyst reports, product demos, or any regulatory updates that affect style control developments. Sudden shifts in trading volume or large bets on Polymarket may also indicate new information, causing rapid price changes as participants reassess their positions ahead of Oct 31, 2026.