TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

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2,984,028,936

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$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

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4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5?
polymarket

#2 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of October 5?

Volume:
$20,654

OpenAI

 - Polymarket

OpenAI - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 2:16 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

OpenAI

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,478
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Google

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,024
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,555
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$810
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$564
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$549
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$479
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 12, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 12, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 16, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the second highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 12, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 12, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 16, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of October 5 to October 11, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 2nd after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the OpenRouter AI market share tracks the current odds that various AI labs will achieve the second-highest market share within the OpenRouter ecosystem during the week of October 5. It also displays the price history of the market, allowing users to see how predictions have shifted over time. Currently, the 24-hour volume is unknown, and the total volume for this market is also unknown. This provides a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets regarding the competitive landscape of AI models accessible through OpenRouter.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the probability of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more traders bet on a particular AI lab gaining market share, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of the collective wisdom of the crowd regarding the OpenRouter AI landscape.

This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on determining which AI lab holds the second-highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of October 5. The data used to determine the market share will be sourced from OpenRouter’s official reporting, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. This allows traders to confidently participate, knowing that the resolution process will be objective and based on publicly available information.

Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Major announcements from AI labs regarding new model releases or partnerships with OpenRouter could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected changes in the performance or popularity of existing models on the platform could also influence the odds. Furthermore, any news related to the competitive landscape of AI, such as funding rounds or key personnel changes at rival labs, could impact predictions. Shifts in overall market sentiment towards AI investment or regulation could also play a role in how this market evolves leading up to Oct 13, 2026.