TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

40,213

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?
kalshi

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 5, 2026?

Volume:
$56,723

5.13% or above

 - Kalshi

5.13% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 3:30 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

5.13% or above

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$11,767
N/A
N/A
$9,165
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.15% or above

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,510
N/A
N/A
$5,916
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.27% or above

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,002
N/A
N/A
$2,883
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.17% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,792
N/A
N/A
$3,729
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.29% or above

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,385
N/A
N/A
$1,075
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.31% or above

View
100%
63%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,989
N/A
N/A
$1,418
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.19% or above

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,271
N/A
N/A
$2,203
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.25% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,135
N/A
N/A
$1,391
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.21% or above

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,044
N/A
N/A
$1,855
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.23% or above

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,821
N/A
N/A
$1,303
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.11% or above

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,488
N/A
N/A
$1,488
Settled
Yes
kalshi

5.39% or above

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,800
N/A
N/A
$4,840
Settled
No
kalshi

5.35% or above

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,047
N/A
N/A
$626
Settled
No
kalshi

5.33% or above

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,807
N/A
N/A
$947
Settled
No
kalshi

5.37% or above

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$866
N/A
N/A
$615
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key indicator in government debt markets on a specific future date. It reflects expectations about economic policy and investor sentiment through changes in borrowing costs for the U.S. government. Outcomes depend entirely on measured interest rates rather than predictions or interpretations.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury as published on October 5, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold between 5.10% and 5.38%, with a 'Yes' outcome occurring if the actual yield exceeds its specific threshold. All markets share identical expiration mechanics: they close at the earlier of two times—either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day after the yield data release, or one week after October 5, 2026. This structure creates a ladder of progressively higher yield thresholds, allowing participants to bet on different levels of potential rate movement while using a uniform timing framework.