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10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
kalshi

10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Oct 1, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Oct 30, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$22,783
Volume 24h:
$802
23%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$13,805
6%

4.96% or above

 - Kalshi

4.96% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 30, 2026

Time left: 06d:04h:38m

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.95% on Oct 30, 2026?

66%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 85¢ buys you 118 shares | Odds: 66% Total Payout: $118 | Net Profit: $18 Multiplier: 1.18x | ROI: 18% APY not meaningful 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.96% or above

Trade
66%
Yes 85¢No 35¢
20¢
N/A
$226
0%
352%
$106
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

4.98% or above

Trade
65%
16%
Yes 71¢No 47¢
18¢
N/A
$618
94%
N/A
$300
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5% or above

Trade
57%
3%
Yes 70¢No 48¢
18¢
N/A
$721
38%
N/A
$333
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.02% or above

Trade
52%
41%
Yes 62¢No 56¢
18¢
N/A
$838
31%
N/A
$201
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.04% or above

Trade
42%
Yes 60¢No 60¢
20¢
N/A
$245
0%
N/A
$7
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.08% or above

Trade
30%
Yes 43¢No 76¢
19¢
N/A
$68
0%
349%
$64
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.16% or above

Trade
29%
17%
Yes 19¢No 100¢
19¢
N/A
$1,143
0.18%
23%
$718
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.4% or above

Trade
14%
Yes 7¢No 100¢
7¢
N/A
$633
0%
0%
$533
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.24% or above

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 100¢
13¢
N/A
$704
0%
36%
$500
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.14% or above

Trade
12%
6%
Yes 22¢No 98¢
20¢
N/A
$350
40%
N/A
$275
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.42% or above

Trade
12%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$601
0%
0%
$501
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.28% or above

Trade
8%
Yes 12¢No 100¢
12¢
N/A
$4,442
0%
13%
$2,374
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.34% or above

Trade
7%
Yes 11¢No 100¢
11¢
N/A
$1,816
0%
0.83%
$854
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.3% or above

Trade
6%
Yes 11¢No 100¢
11¢
N/A
$1,470
0%
2%
$1,098
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.46% or above

Trade
6%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$207
0%
N/A
$121
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.36% or above

Trade
6%
Yes 11¢No 100¢
11¢
N/A
$1,190
0%
0%
$529
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.62% or above

Trade
5%
Yes 10¢No 100¢
10¢
N/A
$100
0%
N/A
$100
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.38% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$1,967
0%
0.25%
$1,264
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.44% or above

Trade
1%
Yes 9¢No 100¢
9¢
N/A
$1,558
0%
14%
$1,164
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.1% or above

Trade
63%
Yes 35¢No 85¢
20¢
N/A
$53
0%
N/A
$53
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.12% or above

Trade
59%
Yes 28¢No 92¢
20¢
N/A
$5
0%
N/A
$5
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.32% or above

Trade
51%
Yes 11¢No 100¢
11¢
N/A
$1,335
0%
0%
$1,164
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.26% or above

Trade
49%
Yes 12¢No 100¢
12¢
N/A
$414
0%
0%
$182
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.18% or above

Trade
31%
Yes 17¢No 100¢
17¢
N/A
$1,015
0%
4%
$781
6d 4h 38m
active
kalshi

5.2% or above

Trade
30%
Yes 16¢No 100¢
16¢
N/A
$729
0%
16%
$401
6d 4h 38m
active
Total markets: 25 of 35

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key indicator in government debt markets on a specific future date. It reflects expectations about economic conditions and monetary policy over the next several years. Outcomes depend entirely on official yield measurements released at the specified time.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note as of October 30, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold: if the published yield exceeds the specified percentage (e.g., 5.15%, 5.17%, etc.), that market settles 'Yes.' All markets share identical expiration mechanics—they close at the earlier of two times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day after the yield data release, or one week following October 30, 2026. This structure creates a series of escalating yield thresholds, allowing participants to bet on different levels of potential rate movement.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market tracks the current implied probability of various yield levels on October 30, 2026. You’ll find a dynamically updating price reflecting the collective predictions of traders, as well as the total volume traded—currently $22,783—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $802. The dashboard also displays the highest probability outcome as determined by traders on Kalshi, allowing you to quickly assess the prevailing sentiment regarding the future 10-year Treasury yield.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for long-term Treasury yields. While many analysts anticipate a gradual decline in yields, this market demonstrates a broader range of expectations, with significant probability assigned to outcomes both above and below current consensus estimates. It's important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and assumptions, whereas this market represents a real-time aggregation of diverse opinions and potential scenarios from individuals actively trading on Kalshi.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing different yield levels. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of participants about the likelihood of that yield occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as economic conditions evolve. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded, and inaccurate ones are penalized.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the result. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual yield, reflecting the accuracy of their forecasts in this market. The final price will represent the collective wisdom of the crowd.

Several key signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy, such as interest rate hikes or cuts, will be major drivers. Unexpected shifts in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), could also cause substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and their impact on global economic growth, as well as major economic releases like GDP reports and employment figures, are all likely to influence trading activity and the overall direction of this market.