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10Y US Treasury yield on Nov 6, 2026?
kalshi

10Y US Treasury yield on Nov 6, 2026?

Oct 30, 2026, 3:30 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 3:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$444
Volume 24h:
$208
11%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$340
44%

4.88% or above

 - Kalshi

4.88% or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:22h:45m

Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.87% on Nov 6, 2026?

60%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 73¢ buys you 137 shares | Odds: 60% Total Payout: $137 | Net Profit: $37 Multiplier: 1.37x | ROI: 37% APY not meaningful 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.88% or above

Trade
60%
Yes 73¢No 44¢
17¢
N/A
$2
0%
N/A
$2
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5% or above

Trade
38%
Yes 36¢No 80¢
16¢
N/A
$1
0%
N/A
$1
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

4.98% or above

Trade
36%
27%
Yes 42¢No 73¢
15¢
N/A
$38
12%
N/A
$34
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5.14% or above

Trade
16%
Yes 13¢No 100¢
13¢
N/A
$1
0%
N/A
$1
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5.1% or above

Trade
15%
8%
Yes 16¢No 96¢
12¢
N/A
$200
100%
N/A
$100
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5.12% or above

Trade
6%
Yes 14¢No 100¢
14¢
N/A
$100
0%
N/A
$100
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

4.86% or above

Trade
86%
3%
Yes 75¢No 39¢
14¢
N/A
$102
2%
N/A
$102
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

4.9% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
15¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

4.92% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

4.94% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

4.96% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
16¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5.02% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
15¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5.04% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
15¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5.06% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
kalshi

5.08% or above

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 22h 45m
Active
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the performance of a key benchmark in government debt markets on a specific future date. It reflects expectations about economic conditions, monetary policy, and investor sentiment influencing long-term interest rates. The outcome depends entirely on the actual yield level observed at the close of trading on that day.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the par yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note as of November 6, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 4.86% to 5.14%, above which it resolves to Yes. The resolution deadline for all markets is the sooner of two times: either 7:00 PM Eastern Time on the first business day following the official release of the yield data for that date, or one week after November 6, 2026. This structure creates a spectrum of outcomes where participants can assess varying degrees of yield movement, with each threshold representing a progressively higher level of market expectation for interest rate levels.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the 10Y Treasury yield market tracks the current implied probabilities for the yield being above or below various levels on November 6, 2026. You can view the price history of contracts, showing how the market has priced in different outcomes over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $208, and the total volume traded to date, reaching $444. This provides a clear picture of market activity and sentiment surrounding future interest rates.

Currently, it's important to note that analysts’ forecasts for the 10Y Treasury yield in November 2026 vary considerably. Some predict a continued rise in rates due to persistent inflation, while others anticipate a decline as the Federal Reserve potentially pivots to a more dovish monetary policy. This market allows traders to express their own views on these factors, and the resulting price action can offer a unique perspective compared to traditional surveys or point estimates from financial institutions. It’s a dynamic assessment of probabilities, reflecting the collective wisdom of participants.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting the prices based on their expectations. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the 10Y Treasury yield being above a specific level on the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view. This creates a real-time, market-driven forecast of future interest rates, distinct from static analyst predictions.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield on that date is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific yield will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider and used to determine whether contracts predicting a yield above or below a certain level will pay out. Traders will be able to see the final yield and the resulting payouts shortly after the resolution date, based on the contracts they hold in this market.

Several key economic signals and events could significantly impact this market. Changes in inflation data, Federal Reserve policy announcements (including interest rate decisions and forward guidance), and unexpected shifts in economic growth could all drive price movements. Geopolitical events and global economic conditions also play a role, as they can influence investor risk appetite and demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. Strong employment reports or signs of a recession could also cause substantial shifts in the perceived probabilities reflected in this market.