TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$230,589,906

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2,984,028,936

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$1,885,293,300

410,482

Markets across

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4,340

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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37%

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#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 28?
polymarket

#1 AI lab by OpenRouter market share week of September 28?

Volume:
$16,727

DeepSeek

 - Polymarket

DeepSeek - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 2:25 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

DeepSeek

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,497
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Google

View
0%
80%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,005
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$713
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Xiaomi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$487
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Qwen

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$456
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

xAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$418
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$404
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthropic

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tencent

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$392
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$382
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$371
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Z.ai

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$210
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AI lab G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 9, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the AI lab with the highest market share on OpenRouter for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. A lab's market share is the percentage displayed for that lab in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage, for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026. The "stealth" and "others" groupings are not labs; if either occupies the relevant rank, it will be skipped and the next ranked lab will be used. This market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 once the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 are first displayed. If the figures for the week of October 5, 2026 have not been displayed by 11:59 PM ET on October 9, 2026, this market will resolve according to the figures displayed for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time. If no data is available for the week of September 28 to October 4, 2026 at that time, this market will resolve to "Other". The AI labs will be primarily ranked by the percentage displayed in the Market Share chart, set to Percentage. If two or more labs are tied on market share in percentage terms, the lab with the larger token count displayed in the Absolute view of the chart will be ranked higher. If a tie still remains, the lab whose listed name comes first alphabetically will be ranked higher. This market will resolve to the AI lab ranked 1st after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market is https://openrouter.ai/rankings.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the AI lab market share tracks the probabilities associated with different AI labs holding the largest market share in OpenRouter during the week of September 28. You can view the current odds for each potential leader, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $3,717. The total volume for this market is $16,727. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. The dashboard also displays a price history, providing insight into how the probabilities have shifted over time.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment on Polymarket suggests a very high probability of one AI lab dominating the market share. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which predict a more competitive landscape with several labs vying for the top spot. However, it’s important to note that analyst predictions are often based on longer-term trends and broader industry analysis, while this market focuses on a specific, short-term timeframe. The collective wisdom of traders on Polymarket appears to be leaning towards a clear frontrunner, differing from some external expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which AI lab has the highest market share within OpenRouter for the week of September 28. Data will be sourced from OpenRouter’s publicly available metrics. The outcome will be determined by objective measurement of market share, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders should monitor OpenRouter’s data releases as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could influence the AI lab market share between now and Oct 6, 2026. Major announcements regarding new AI model releases or partnerships from leading labs could significantly shift market sentiment. Unexpected outages or performance issues with a specific lab’s services could also impact its market share. Furthermore, changes in OpenRouter’s platform usage or developer preferences could favor one lab over another. Any significant news related to the capabilities, adoption, or reliability of these AI labs has the potential to move this market.