TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 22, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which song achieves the highest position on YouTube's weekly Top Songs chart in the United States for a specific week in 2026. Participants can speculate on whether particular tracks will claim the top spot based on anticipated viewer engagement and trends.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified song occupies the number one position on YouTube's Weekly Top Songs United States Chart for the week dated October 16–22, 2026. The chart reflects aggregated viewer activity, including streams and user interactions, over the defined period. All markets operate independently; only the outcome for the respective song matters. Neither YouTube nor any associated entities endorse these markets, and references to YouTube are used descriptively without implying affiliation or endorsement. The resolution depends solely on YouTube's official chart data for the stated week.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as predicting music chart performance is notoriously subjective. However, prediction markets often aggregate a diverse range of opinions and data points, potentially offering a more accurate forecast than individual expert predictions. The collective wisdom of traders in this market may reveal insights that differ from those presented in conventional music industry analysis. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their limitations when attempting to predict future chart success.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in a particular song reaching the top spot. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a specific song, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price and probability. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on the song ranked number one on YouTube's Weekly Top Songs Chart for the USA, as officially published by YouTube. The resolution will reflect the chart data released for the week ending on or closest to the resolution date. The outcome will be determined by the official chart rankings, not by any subjective assessment or external source.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major promotional events, like music video releases or high-profile performances, for any potential top song could drive trading activity. Unexpected viral trends on platforms like TikTok or Instagram could also rapidly shift public attention and impact chart performance. Furthermore, any news related to artists involved—such as collaborations, controversies, or album releases—could influence trader sentiment. A sudden surge in streams or views for a particular song would be a key signal to watch as this market approaches its resolution date.
