TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Andrew Scott
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Mar 15, 2027
2027 Best Actor Oscar nominations?
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Description
This event group tracks whether specific actors will receive Best Actor nominations at the 99th Academy Awards (ceremony on March 14, 2027, nominations announced January 21, 2027). Both platforms offer individual binary markets on the same 18-24 nominated actors, with resolution tied to official AMPAS nomination announcements.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical binary logic: each actor-specific market resolves YES if nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, NO if not nominated or if no nominations occur by deadline.Primary resolution logic: Official Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) website (oscars.org), live ceremony broadcast on March 14, 2027, and consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- Each market is a binary YES/NO on a single actor's nomination status
- YES resolution: Actor receives official Best Actor nomination announcement on January 21, 2027
- NO resolution: Actor does not receive nomination, or no nominations declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
- Resolution source hierarchy: Official AMPAS data first, then live broadcast confirmation, then credible media consensus
- No partial credit or conditional outcomes; nomination status is binary and deterministic
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Nomination announcement delay: If AMPAS delays the January 21, 2027 announcement beyond that date, markets remain open until official announcement occurs or March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET deadline, whichever comes first
- Ceremony cancellation or postponement: If the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is cancelled or postponed beyond March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET without nominations being officially declared, all markets resolve to NO
- Withdrawn or rescinded nominations: If an actor is nominated but the nomination is later withdrawn or rescinded by AMPAS before the ceremony, the market resolves based on the final official nomination status at resolution time
- Multiple nomination categories: Markets are specific to Best Actor category only; nominations in other categories (e.g., Supporting Actor) do not trigger YES resolution
- Data source conflict: If official AMPAS sources conflict with media reporting, official AMPAS data from oscars.org and live broadcast take precedence
Polymarket
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
An actor receives a Yes resolution if he is nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. The nomination announcement is expected in January 2027. Each actor listed represents a separate market outcome, and any actor who receives an official Best Actor nomination will resolve to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts frequently rely on subjective opinions and media narratives, while this market reflects real money being put behind predictions. The aggregated trading activity provides a quantifiable measure of belief, potentially identifying overlooked candidates or adjusting for biases present in conventional analysis. While analyst predictions can be valuable, the dynamic pricing in this market can offer a more responsive and potentially accurate gauge of nomination probabilities as new information emerges. The current volume of $441,143 suggests significant trader interest.
Prices for the Oscars Best Actor market can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading strategies, and liquidity, which can lead to differing interpretations of the same information. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can influence trading behavior. Differences in the timing of information flow and the availability of news can also contribute to price discrepancies. Currently, these platforms show differing probabilities for potential nominees, which is reflected in their respective prices.
This market resolves around Mar 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official nominations for the Best Actor category at the 2027 Academy Awards are announced and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect whether a given actor received a nomination, based on the official list released by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Trading will cease prior to the announcement, allowing for a clear determination of the winning outcomes based on the official results. The total volume traded in this market is currently $441,143.
Numerous events could significantly impact this market between now and Mar 15, 2027. Critical factors include the release of films featuring potential nominees, early award season wins (such as Golden Globes or Critics' Choice Awards), and positive critical reception. Strong performances in upcoming roles, significant media buzz, and campaigning efforts by studios can also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected controversies or shifts in public opinion surrounding actors could also lead to substantial price movements. The 24-hour trading volume of $7,732 indicates ongoing sensitivity to new information.