TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Before July 2027
- Kalshi
Before July 2027 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 1, 2026
WIll GTA6 be released by Jul 1, 2027?
$
Intro
This market tracks the probability of Grand Theft Auto VI being released by July 1, 2027. Currently, the aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket gives a 98.0% probability to this outcome. This prediction market utilizes release information as determined by whether GTA 6 is available for purchase on major platforms – PS5, Xbox Series X/S, and Windows – by December 31, 2026, as the resolution source. Keep an eye on Rockstar Games’ next official update, scheduled for sometime in 2024, for potential release window announcements.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers numerous specific resolution dates, while Polymarket focuses on broader timeframes (e.g., before November 2026).Hero tip: The differing granularity means implied probabilities will vary across platforms. Consider this when trading.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if GTA VI is officially released in the US by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Release means publicly available for purchase or download; early access doesn't count. Source: Official Rockstar/Take-Two information.
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if GTA VI is released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by any of a multitude of dates, ranging from June 2024 to January 2028. Release means publicly available for purchase or download; early access doesn't count.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Kalshi
If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by May 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Aug 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Nov 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If GTA 6 (Grand Theft Auto VI) has been released on a major platform (PS5, Xbox Series X/S, Windows) by Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on company statements and industry trends, this market reflects the aggregated beliefs of individuals with skin in the game. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as traders are incentivized to assess all available information and express their true beliefs. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and biases; analysts may be influenced by company relationships, while traders focus solely on the probability of a specific outcome. This market provides a real-time assessment of release expectations.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a unique set of participants with varying levels of expertise and risk tolerance, leading to differing interpretations of available information. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform can influence price discovery; a larger volume generally leads to more efficient pricing. Currently, Polymarket currently favors GTA VI released by November 30? at 90.5%, while Kalshi leans toward WIll GTA6 be released by Jul 1, 2027? at 98.0%, reflecting these nuances.
This market resolves around Dec 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official release date of Grand Theft Auto VI is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the first publicly available confirmation of the game’s release, as announced by Rockstar Games or a widely recognized gaming news outlet. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome, based on verifiable evidence. Traders should monitor official announcements for updates as we approach the resolution date.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Rockstar Games regarding the development progress or a confirmed release window would be major catalysts. Leaks from reliable sources, although unofficial, could also influence trader sentiment. Major gaming industry events, such as E3 or Gamescom, might provide further clues or unveilments. Unexpected delays in development, reported through credible sources, could push the release date further out, while positive news about development progress could accelerate it. Any news regarding the game’s production or marketing could move this market.