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404,744

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2,691

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5

Polymarket:

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World Cup: Egypt Stage of Elimination
kalshi
polymarket

World Cup: Egypt Stage of Elimination

Volume:
$600,388

Round of 16

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 2:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$42,179
N/A
N/A
$18,842
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Round of 16

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$39,469
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$389,638
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Group Stage

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,616
N/A
N/A
$1,219
Settled
No
polymarket

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,698
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Round of 32

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,310
N/A
N/A
$7,746
Settled
No
polymarket

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Quarterfinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,998
N/A
N/A
$6,547
Settled
No
polymarket

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Semifinals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,574
N/A
N/A
$4,436
Settled
No
polymarket

Final

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,054
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Runner-Up

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,360
N/A
N/A
$3,360
Settled
No
polymarket

Champion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,843
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Outright Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,473
N/A
N/A
$6,468
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Intro

This market tracks which stage Egypt will be eliminated in during the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup, or whether Egypt wins the tournament. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi and Polymarket shows a 87.0% probability that Egypt gets eliminated in the Round of 16. Resolution is determined by the official FIFA tournament results, with the market settling based on the furthest round Egypt reaches before elimination. Watch for Egypt's performance in their group stage matches leading up to the tournament conclusion on July 20, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market structure divergence: Kalshi uses binary Yes/No framing for all elimination stages plus championship, while Polymarket uses categorical outcomes. The underlying facts are unified, but settlement mechanisms and outcome spaces differ.Hero tip: Kalshi's 'Yes' outcome encompasses all Polymarket categorical outcomes except 'Other'. If you are long 'Yes' on Kalshi, you win unless Egypt is disqualified, withdraws, or the tournament is cancelled/postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Cross-platform arbitrage requires mapping Kalshi binary to Polymarket categorical outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary market: resolves 'Yes' if Egypt is eliminated at any stage (Group, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final) OR wins the championship. No explicit handling of disqualification, withdrawal, or tournament cancellation. Key quote: 'If Egypt wins the Final in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Categorical market: resolves to specific stage label (Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, Final, Champion) or 'Other' if disqualified, withdrawn, or tournament cancelled/postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: 'If Egypt is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Egypt based on the best available official information.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Egypt is eliminated. If Egypt wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Egypt is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Egypt based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Egypt's stage of elimination is determined by the farthest point at which the team fails to advance in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup tournament structure. The tournament progresses through Group Stage, Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarterfinals, Semifinals, and Final. If Egypt loses a match at any stage, the corresponding market for that stage resolves to Yes. In the event of withdrawal, forfeiture, or disqualification, the team's elimination stage is determined by the farthest stage reached prior to such action—for example, if Egypt withdraws after winning a Round of 32 match, the Round of 16 market resolves to Yes as that would be the next stage where elimination would have occurred. A loss in the Semifinals results in Yes resolution for the Semifinals market regardless of third-place match outcome. The Outright Winner market resolves to Yes only if Egypt wins the Final.

Frequently asked questions

The World Cup: Egypt Stage of Elimination dashboard aggregates real-time odds and trading activity across multiple prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, to show consensus probability on Egypt's tournament progression. You can monitor live chance percentages, 24-hour volume shifts, and cross-platform price discovery as traders update their views on Egypt's elimination stage. This multi-platform view reveals where the market agrees and where divergence exists, giving you a comprehensive snapshot of how prediction markets are pricing Egypt's World Cup fate relative to conventional sportsbook odds.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi often reflect different risk appetites and liquidity than traditional sportsbooks. Prediction market traders are incentivized to price outcomes accurately to profit, whereas sportsbooks build in margins and manage liability. For Egypt's World Cup stage, prediction market odds may move faster in response to team news, injury reports, or qualifying results, while sportsbooks adjust more conservatively. Comparing the two reveals whether markets are pricing Egypt's elimination stage more optimistically or pessimistically than the betting industry consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, and may list slightly different outcome specifications around Egypt's elimination stage. Polymarket may focus on a specific elimination round, while Kalshi might track overall tournament success, creating natural pricing gaps. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and user demographics also influence how quickly each platform incorporates new information. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at different odds, offering arbitrage opportunities and reflecting the decentralized nature of prediction markets.

Key catalysts include Egypt's qualifying campaign performance, roster announcements, and injury updates to star players. Coaching changes, friendly match results, and regional tournament outcomes like the Africa Cup of Nations will shift market sentiment. Draw announcements revealing Egypt's group opponents and seeding will trigger repricing as traders assess path difficulty. Betting syndicates and sharp money flowing into Polymarket or Kalshi can signal directional moves. Real-time World Cup match results will continuously adjust Egypt's elimination probability as the tournament progresses through group and knockout stages.