TOTAL VOLUME:

$143.5b

24H VOL:

$195,145,316

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,692,168,434

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,731,064,451

482,647

Markets across

36,631

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,924

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
kalshi
polymarket

NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?

Total volume:
$7,085,143
Volume 24h:
$536
32%
Liquidity:
$43,424
0.03%
Open interest:
$4,681,899
0.01%

Stays with Golden State or Retires

 - Kalshi

Stays with Golden State or Retires - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 23, 2026

Time left: 03d:19h:25m

What will be Steph Curry's next team?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 240% Illiquid market 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stays with Golden State or Retires

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,976,084
0.01%
0.17%
$1,026,562
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Boston

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,387,253
0.02%
0.09%
$754,353
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

San Antonio

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$827,301
0%
0.05%
$560,356
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Miami

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$762,543
0%
0%
$634,183
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Charlotte

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$727,147
0.01%
0.01%
$628,525
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Philadelphia

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$288,982
0%
0.01%
$286,808
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Toronto

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$270,278
0%
0%
$270,058
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Cleveland

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$240,542
0%
0%
$240,542
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Los Angeles L

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$43,380
0%
0%
$43,380
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Houston

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$39,720
0%
1%
$39,720
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Denver

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$32,010
0%
0%
$32,010
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Dallas

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$29,026
0%
0%
$29,026
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Oklahoma City

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$22,879
0%
0%
$22,879
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Minnesota

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$21,007
0%
0%
$21,007
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

New York

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$17,358
0%
0.28%
$17,358
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Atlanta

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$15,484
0%
17%
$15,484
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Orlando

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$11,931
0%
0%
$11,931
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Brooklyn

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$9,139
0%
0%
$9,011
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Indiana

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,562
0%
0%
$5,562
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Washington

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,268
0%
0%
$5,068
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Portland

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,733
0%
0%
$4,733
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Utah

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,207
0%
0%
$3,207
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Detroit

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,094
0%
0%
$3,094
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Chicago

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,771
0%
2%
$2,771
3d 19h 25m
active
kalshi

Los Angeles C

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$432
0%
0%
$432
3d 19h 25m
active
Total markets: 25 of 31

Intro

This market tracks the question of Stephen Curry’s next team, specifically whether he will remain with the Golden State Warriors. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 99.0% chance that Curry’s next team will *not* be the Warriors, with a 1.0% probability he stays. This market resolves based on whether Curry is rostered by the Warriors before October 22, 2026, as defined by Polymarket, with Kalshi considering a wider range of team possibilities. Keep a close watch on the NBA draft in June 2026, as potential trades or team restructuring could significantly impact this outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines 'Yes' as Curry being on *any* team (including staying with the Warriors or retiring), while Polymarket defines 'Yes' as Curry *not* being on the Warriors.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is broader, including scenarios where Curry remains with the Warriors or retires, which Polymarket considers a 'No' outcome. Factor this into your trading strategy.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Yes' if Curry is not on the Warriors roster by October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, 'No'. Focuses solely on Warriors roster status.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if Curry joins any of 30 listed teams (including staying with the Warriors or retiring) before Oct 21, 2026. Essentially, 'Yes' means he's not with the Warriors or has retired.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Stephen Curry is not rostered by the Golden State Warriors before October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Stephen Curry retires, is released, is traded, or is otherwise not a member of the Golden State Warriors official player roster, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Stephen Curry is listed on the official roster of the Golden State Warriors as of October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of his playing status, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA, Golden State Warriors, and/or Stephen Curry; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome occurs first: Steph Curry signs with or is traded to any of the specified NBA teams, or he stays with the Golden State Warriors or retires, all before October 21, 2026. Each outcome is mutually exclusive—only one can resolve to Yes. The resolution is based on official NBA roster transactions and announcements.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the Stephen Curry future market across multiple prediction platforms, providing a consensus view of whether he will leave the Warriors. Currently, the aggregated volume for this market is $7,085,143, with $536 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? at 0.1%, while Kalshi leans toward What will be Steph Curry's next team? at 99.0%. By aggregating data from both venues, we offer a comprehensive look at where the crowd believes Curry will play next.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more nuanced and real-time assessment of probabilities than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while prediction markets are driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs. This can lead to differences, particularly as new information emerges. The spread between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds can sometimes be as large as 98.8 percentage points, indicating a significant divergence in expectations. This market provides an alternative perspective on the likelihood of Stephen Curry leaving the Warriors.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different pool of participants with varying levels of expertise and information, leading to distinct price discovery processes. Furthermore, trading limits and fee structures on each platform can influence how aggressively traders position themselves. The current volume on Polymarket is influencing its price, while Kalshi’s price is responding to different factors, creating the observed discrepancies in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Stephen Curry has officially changed teams by the end of the NBA offseason. This means a confirmed trade, free agency signing, or other official announcement will determine the outcome of this market. The result will be based on publicly available information and widely accepted reporting from reputable sports news sources.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding Stephen Curry’s contract negotiations with the Warriors, potential trade discussions, or his public statements about his future could cause substantial price movement. Major roster changes within the Warriors organization, or the emergence of attractive opportunities with other teams, would also be key catalysts. Furthermore, injuries to key players or changes in coaching staff could influence the perceived likelihood of Curry remaining with the Warriors, thereby shifting the odds in this market.