TOTAL VOLUME:

$133.6b

24H VOL:

$92,851,721

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,371,557,760

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,376,165,751

370,286

Markets across

29,142

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,555

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

40%

VS.

Kalshi:

60%

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NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
kalshi
polymarket

NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?

Total volume:
$6,971,304
Volume 24h:
$4,055
3%
Liquidity:
$46,025
4%
Open interest:
$4,655,324
0.01%

Stays with Golden State or Retires

 - Kalshi

Stays with Golden State or Retires - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 23, 2026

Time left: 22d:22h:01m

What will be Steph Curry's next team?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 22 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Stays with Golden State or Retires

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$1,910,198
0.18%
10%
$1,011,115
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Boston

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,384,176
0.02%
0.2%
$751,312
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

San Antonio

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$826,813
0%
0.01%
$559,868
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Miami

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$761,982
0%
0.2%
$633,622
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Charlotte

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$724,946
0.01%
0.23%
$626,375
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Philadelphia

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$288,951
0%
5%
$286,777
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Toronto

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$270,278
0%
0%
$270,058
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Cleveland

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$240,542
0%
0.34%
$240,542
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Los Angeles L

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$43,380
0%
0.6%
$43,380
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Houston

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$39,233
0%
0%
$39,233
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Denver

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$32,010
0%
0.31%
$32,010
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Dallas

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$29,026
0%
0%
$29,026
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Oklahoma City

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$22,879
0%
0%
$22,879
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Minnesota

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$21,007
0%
0%
$21,007
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

New York

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$17,310
0%
0%
$17,310
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Phoenix

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$13,001
0%
0%
$13,001
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Orlando

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$11,931
0%
0%
$11,931
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Atlanta

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$11,606
0.83%
2%
$11,606
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Brooklyn

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$8,744
0%
0%
$8,616
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Indiana

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,562
0%
0%
$5,562
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Washington

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,268
0%
0%
$5,068
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Portland

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,733
0%
0%
$4,733
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Utah

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,207
0%
0%
$3,207
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Detroit

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,094
0%
0%
$3,094
3w 1d 22h
active
kalshi

Chicago

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,723
0%
0%
$2,723
3w 1d 22h
active
Total markets: 25 of 31

Intro

This market tracks the question of whether Stephen Curry will play for a team other than the Golden State Warriors. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi and Polymarket indicates a 96.0% chance that Curry’s next team will be one other than the Warriors, with a 2.0% probability he remains with Golden State. Resolution will be determined based on whether Stephen Curry is rostered by the Golden State Warriors before October 22, 2026, as defined by Polymarket’s rules, and is sourced from those platforms. Keep an eye on the NBA draft in June 2026, as potential trades or team restructuring could significantly impact this outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi defines 'Yes' as Curry being on *any* team (including staying with the Warriors or retiring), while Polymarket defines 'Yes' as Curry *not* being on the Warriors.Hero tip: Kalshi's market is broader, including scenarios where Curry remains with the Warriors or retires, which Polymarket considers a 'No' outcome. Factor this into your trading strategy.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Yes' if Curry is not on the Warriors roster by October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, 'No'. Focuses solely on Warriors roster status.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if Curry joins any of 30 listed teams (including staying with the Warriors or retiring) before Oct 21, 2026. Essentially, 'Yes' means he's not with the Warriors or has retired.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Stephen Curry is not rostered by the Golden State Warriors before October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Stephen Curry retires, is released, is traded, or is otherwise not a member of the Golden State Warriors official player roster, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Stephen Curry is listed on the official roster of the Golden State Warriors as of October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, regardless of his playing status, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source will be official information from the NBA, Golden State Warriors, and/or Stephen Curry; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes for whichever outcome occurs first: Steph Curry signs with or is traded to any of the specified NBA teams, or he stays with the Golden State Warriors or retires, all before October 21, 2026. Each outcome is mutually exclusive—only one can resolve to Yes. The resolution is based on official NBA roster transactions and announcements.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the Stephen Curry future market across multiple prediction platforms, providing a consensus view of whether he will leave the Warriors. Currently, the aggregated volume for this market is $6,971,304, with $3,948 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors? at 0.8%, while Kalshi leans toward What will be Steph Curry's next team? at 99.0%. By aggregating data from both venues, we offer a comprehensive look at where the crowd believes Curry will play next.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a more nuanced and real-time assessment of probabilities than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while prediction markets are driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs. This can lead to differences, particularly as new information emerges. The spread between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds can sometimes be as large as 98.2 percentage points, indicating a significant divergence in expectations. This market provides an alternative perspective on the likelihood of Stephen Curry leaving the Warriors.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different pool of participants with varying levels of expertise and information, leading to distinct price discovery processes. Furthermore, trading limits and fee structures on each platform can influence how aggressively traders position themselves. The current volume on Polymarket is influencing its price, while Kalshi’s price is responding to different factors, creating the observed discrepancies in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Stephen Curry has officially changed teams by the end of the NBA offseason. This means a confirmed trade, free agency signing, or other official announcement will determine the outcome of this market. The result will be based on publicly available information and widely accepted reporting from reputable sports news sources.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding Stephen Curry’s contract negotiations with the Warriors, potential trade discussions, or his public statements about his future could cause substantial price movement. Major roster changes within the Warriors organization, or the emergence of attractive opportunities with other teams, would also be key catalysts. Furthermore, injuries to key players or changes in coaching staff could influence the perceived likelihood of Curry remaining with the Warriors, thereby shifting the odds in this market.