TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
NBA: Stephen Curry to leave Warriors?
Total volume:
$1,304
Volume 24h:
$10
0%
Liquidity:
$1,918
45%
Open interest:
$1,067
0%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group contains two completely separate NBA player movement markets that were incorrectly grouped together. Polymarket asks whether Stephen Curry leaves the Warriors by October 22, 2026, while Kalshi asks about Jaylen Brown's team status by October 23, 2026. These are distinct events involving different players and teams.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Fundamental event group mismatch: Polymarket market concerns Stephen Curry and Warriors; Kalshi market concerns Jaylen Brown and his team destination. Additionally, Kalshi market contains logical contradiction where all possible outcomes resolve to YES.Hero Tip:
This group should not exist as currently configured. Request platform correction to separate these into two distinct event groups. The Kalshi market logic appears broken - verify with platform whether it should be binary (Brown stays with Boston vs leaves) rather than covering all 30 teams.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Binary market on Stephen Curry roster status with Warriors. Resolves YES if Curry is not rostered (via retirement, release, trade, or any other means) before October 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Resolves NO if he remains on official roster regardless of playing status. Resolution source: official NBA, Warriors, or Curry information with credible reporting consensus as backup.
- Kalshi: Jaylen Brown team destination market with 30 conditional YES outcomes (all NBA teams) plus staying with Boston or retiring - all resolve to YES before October 23, 2026. This creates a logical tautology where every possible outcome triggers YES resolution, making the market fundamentally unresolvable as a binary prediction.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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