TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

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2,388,728,490

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$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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PGA Tour: The Open Championship Winner
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Who will win The Open Championship?

Volume:
$321,840,832

Ryan Fox

all

3 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 19, 2026

Closed: Jul 19, 1:40 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ryan Fox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,633,327
N/A
N/A
$4,565,647
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Ryan Fox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$176,054
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Ryan Fox

View
61%
Yes 61¢No 39¢
—
N/A
$2,177
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Matt Wallace

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
N/A
$1,441
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Matt Wallace

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,017,208
N/A
N/A
$1,556,104
Settled
No
polymarket

Matt Wallace

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,510
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Bud Cauley

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
N/A
$1,166
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bud Cauley

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,025,771
N/A
N/A
$1,565,471
Settled
No
polymarket

Bud Cauley

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Daniel Brown

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
N/A
$366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Brown

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,215,191
N/A
N/A
$2,514,470
Settled
No
polymarket

Daniel Brown

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,430
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Jacob Bridgeman

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jacob Bridgeman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,988,964
N/A
N/A
$1,661,141
Settled
No
polymarket

Jacob Bridgeman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Jason Day

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jason Day

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,045,110
N/A
N/A
$642,648
Settled
No
polymarket

Jason Day

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Lucas Herbert

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lucas Herbert

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,141,077
N/A
N/A
$4,093,437
Settled
No
polymarket

Lucas Herbert

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,061
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Johnny Keefer

View
100%
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢
—
$7,990
$35
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Johnny Keefer

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,722
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

Jackson Suber

View
100%
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢
—
N/A
$2,461
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jackson Suber

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,266,875
N/A
N/A
$4,237,700
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 386

Intro

This market tracks which golfer will win the 2026 PGA Tour Open Championship. Across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict, the consensus probability for Ryan Fox to claim victory stands at 97.8%, with Scottie Scheffler at 0.0%. Resolution will be determined by official PGA Tour website results and the tournament's official winner announcement. Watch for the conclusion of the championship on July 19, 2026, when the final leaderboard will settle all positions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three platforms use identical resolution logic: official PGA Tour tournament winner determination, with consistent tie-breaking (alphabetical by last name), unlisted-player fallback (Other), and deadline (July 25, 2026 8:00 PM ET).Primary resolution logic: Official PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/) - tournament results and official winner announcement

Core resolution logic:

  • Market resolves YES if the named player wins the 2026 The Open Championship tournament
  • Market resolves NO if the named player is eliminated from contention per official tournament rules
  • Market resolves to Other if an unlisted player wins the tournament
  • In case of a tie, the player whose last name comes first alphabetically is deemed the official winner
  • If no winner is announced by July 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, market resolves to Other
  • Primary resolution source is official PGA Tour website results

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Unlisted Player Victory: If a player not listed on any platform wins the tournament, all individual player markets resolve NO and an Other/catch-all market resolves YES
  • Tie Resolution: In the event of an official playoff or multiple winners announced, the player whose last name comes first alphabetically is treated as the official winner per PGA Tour rules
  • Player Elimination: If a listed player is eliminated from contention based on official tournament rules before completion, their market immediately resolves NO
  • Deadline Miss: If the PGA Tour does not announce an official winner by July 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, markets resolve to Other
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official announcement of the 2026 The Open Championship winner by the PGA Tour, or by July 25, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET (deadline), whichever comes firstOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 The Open Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the The Open Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the The Open Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by July 25, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Kalshi

Each market corresponds to a specific golfer and resolves to Yes if that golfer wins The Open Championship. If a golfer forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, their Tournament Winner market resolves to No. Golfers who withdraw before competition begins will have their End of Round Leader markets also resolve to No, while Finishing Position, Make the Cut, Head-to-Head, and 3-Ball markets for that golfer resolve to Fair Market Value. The tournament winner is determined by standard golf competition rules, with the golfer posting the lowest total score declared the champion.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 The Open Championship tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the The Open Championship tournament based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will immediately resolve to "No". If an unlisted player wins the The Open Championship tournament this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by PGA Tour official tournament rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If no winner is announced by July 25, 2026 at 8:00PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be the official results published by the PGA Tour website (https://www.pgatour.com/).

Frequently asked questions

The Open Championship winner market aggregates real-time odds across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor how traders price each golfer's chances of claiming the title. This dashboard surfaces the leading contenders, trading volume across venues, and consensus shifts as new information emerges. By tracking the same event across multiple prediction platforms, you gain visibility into where smart money is flowing and how conviction levels differ between communities. The short_topic reflects live trader sentiment rather than static sportsbook lines, updating continuously as the championship approaches.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on continuous trader-to-trader wagering, where prices emerge from supply and demand. This market often reflects sharper, real-time consensus because traders have direct financial incentive to correct mispricings instantly. Prediction market odds can move faster than sportsbook lines in response to news, course conditions, or player form, making them valuable for spotting divergences or validating your own view before placing a traditional bet.

Polymarket and Kalshi attract different trader bases, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which can cause temporary price splits on the same outcome. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. One venue may see heavier volume on a particular golfer due to recent news coverage or a platform-specific user demographic, while the other lags. Funding constraints, fee structures, and market-making incentives also vary between platforms. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit them, but they create opportunities to shop for better odds or identify where conviction is genuinely stronger.

Recent tournament form, course-fit analysis, and injury updates are primary drivers. A top contender's strong finish at a warm-up event or a sudden withdrawal can shift odds sharply. Weather forecasts closer to the championship date—wind, rain, and rough conditions—often favor certain playing styles and trigger repricing. Media narratives around momentum, mental resilience, or head-to-head matchups also influence trader positioning. Late-breaking news on course setup, equipment changes, or field withdrawals can create volatility. Monitoring PGA Tour standings and player statements in the weeks leading up to the event helps you anticipate market moves.