TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Mexico vs. Peru
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
predict
kalshi

What is the result of Mexico vs. Peru?

Total volume:
$5,461,897
Volume 24h:
$5,362,671
6,796%
Liquidity:
$192,405
15%
Open interest:
$3,771,722
4,389%

PER

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 30, 2026

Time left: 00h:51m:29s

Will Peru win on 2026-09-29?

38%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 38¢ buys you 263 shares | Odds: 38% Total Payout: $263 | Net Profit: $163 Multiplier: 2.63x | ROI: 163% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

PER

Trade
38%
25%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$10,922
$13,553
1,506%
N/A
N/A
51m
active
polymarket

Peru

Trade
38%
25%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
$42,726
$48,571
5,476%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
kalshi

Peru

Trade
37%
24%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
N/A
$1,352,587
8,143%
N/A
$711,818
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
37.7%
Yes 37.7¢No 63.3¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Tie

Trade
33%
12%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
N/A
$521,374
35,184%
N/A
$391,823
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

Draw

Trade
33%
12%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
$12,186
$5,993
3,185%
N/A
N/A
51m
active
polymarket

Draw (Mexico vs. Peru)

Trade
33%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
$45,065
$21,778
3,387%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
33%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Mexico

Trade
32%
37%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
N/A
$3,146,266
3,866%
6,669,480%
$2,668,082
0d 0h 0m
active
predict

MEX

Trade
31%
36%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$11,899
$61,064
2,851%
N/A
N/A
51m
active
polymarket

Mexico

Trade
31%
36%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$69,607
$290,710
4,913%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
31.3%
Yes 31.3¢No 69.7¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Mexico versus Peru FIFA International Friendly soccer match scheduled for September 29, 2026, specifically whether Mexico will win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, the aggregated probability of Mexico winning is 68.0%, with Peru winning at 28.0%. This consensus view combines data from Polymarket, Predict, and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the result of the game as defined by the official rules – if a tie occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, the market resolves to Yes. Keep an eye on the match itself as the primary signal, with a resolution date estimate of September 30, 2026, to account for potential delays or adjustments following the game.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly resolves canceled games to 'No', while Kalshi's resolution logic doesn't address cancellation scenarios.Hero tip: Consider the cancellation risk when trading on Kalshi, as markets may remain open or resolve based on a rescheduled game, unlike Polymarket which resolves to 'No'.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: If the game is canceled entirely with no make-up game, the market will resolve to 'No'. Otherwise, resolution is based on the outcome within 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
  • Kalshi: Resolution is based on the result of the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Cancellation scenarios are not explicitly addressed, implying the market would remain open or resolve based on a rescheduled game.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, September 29, 2026 between Mexico and Peru.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the result of the Mexico vs Peru professional international friendly soccer match scheduled for September 29, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Three possible outcomes are considered: Mexico win, Peru win, or a tie. If the match ends in a tie after regulation time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform's rules. The platform explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Predict

This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Tuesday, September 29, 2026 between Mexico and Peru.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the Mexico vs. Peru match from multiple platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi. It displays a consensus view of the probability of various outcomes, currently showing a combined volume of $4,981,256 and 24-hour volume of $4,661,586. By tracking these markets, we can see how traders are assessing the likelihood of different results in this upcoming contest. The dashboard provides a unique perspective beyond traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd and offering a dynamic assessment of the match’s potential.

Prediction market odds, like those displayed for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while prediction markets allow participants to freely express their beliefs. This can lead to prediction markets incorporating a wider range of information, including potentially non-public insights. Furthermore, the continuous trading in prediction markets allows odds to adjust rapidly to new information, whereas sportsbook odds are typically updated less frequently. This dynamic pricing can make prediction markets a valuable complement to traditional sports betting.

On Polymarket, this market is priced based on the collective predictions of its users, while Kalshi operates with a distinct user base and trading dynamics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. This can result in differing probabilities for the same outcome. Factors contributing to these discrepancies include varying levels of information available to each platform’s traders, differences in trading fees and incentives, and the overall risk appetite of the participants on each platform. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Mexico winning at 37.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Mexico winning at 37.0%, illustrating this divergence.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Mexico vs. Peru match as declared by the governing sporting body. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy and fairness. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the odds at the time of resolution, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.

Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market leading up to Sep 30, 2026. Any news regarding team lineups, player injuries, or changes in coaching staff could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location might also impact the perceived probabilities. Furthermore, broader geopolitical events or shifts in public sentiment could indirectly influence trading behavior. As the match date approaches, increased media coverage and analysis will likely contribute to greater market volatility and potentially larger trading volumes.