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Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?
World
polymarket

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?

Jun 5, 2026, 5:52 PM EST - Jul 31, 2026, 4:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$114,059
Volume 24h:
$10,710N/A
Liquidity:
$2,076
23%
Open interest:
$1,810N/A

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

9%

-3%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 26

Aug 27

Vol.

$11k

·

Resolves Jul 31, 2026

Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by September 30?

9%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 9¢ buys you 1,111 shares | Odds: 9% Total Payout: $1,111 | Net Profit: $1,011 Multiplier: 11.11x | ROI: 1,011% APY not meaningful 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Hryshyne, Donetsk Oblast, (48.326812° N, 37.081701° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price data for the Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...? event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Ukraine will re-enter Hryshyne by the specified deadline, along with 24-hour trading volume and price movement charts. Users can monitor how market sentiment evolves as new military, diplomatic, or geopolitical developments emerge. The dashboard provides a transparent view of how prediction market participants are pricing this geopolitical outcome in real time.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated bets from thousands of traders and typically incorporate real-time intelligence faster than traditional analyst reports. While institutional analysts may issue periodic forecasts based on military assessments and diplomatic channels, prediction markets continuously update as new battlefield reports, casualty figures, and strategic announcements surface. Comparing 8.5% market probability to published analyst consensus can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios than expert consensus suggests.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this event is priced as a binary outcome contract where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to yes or no positions. The current market probability reflects the collective assessment of whether Ukraine will re-enter Hryshyne before the deadline. Prices fluctuate based on new military developments, casualty reports, supply chain disruptions, and diplomatic negotiations. Traders profit by correctly predicting the outcome, creating strong incentives for information discovery and accurate pricing of this geopolitical event.

The market resolves on Sep 30, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether Ukraine has re-entered Hryshyne by that deadline. Traders should monitor official military announcements, verified battlefield reports, and credible news sources covering territorial control in the region. The outcome will be determined by documented evidence of Ukrainian forces establishing presence or control in Hryshyne. Participants should track developments through the final hours before resolution to assess the likelihood of the event occurring.

Key catalysts include major military offensives or counteroffensives in the region, announcements of new weapons shipments or military aid, changes in Russian defensive posture, diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations, casualty reports affecting troop availability, and supply chain disruptions impacting either side's logistics. Geopolitical developments such as NATO involvement shifts, sanctions changes, or international mediation efforts could also influence market odds. Real-time battlefield reports and verified social media documentation from credible military analysts will likely drive short-term price movements as traders reassess the probability of Ukrainian re-entry.