TOTAL VOLUME:

$116.8b

24H VOL:

$86,261,101

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,161,631,380

338,606

Markets across

33,200

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,216

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

Time left: 23h:23m:47s

Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 27, 2026?

95%chance
Amount

$

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
MUI X License key version mismatch
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes a public statement in which he insults any non-fictional individual on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the short_topic dashboard tracks the current probability that Donald Trump will publicly insult someone during the specified timeframe. It shows real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $161,227. This gives you a live view of how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of this political event happening.

Unlike traditional polling averages, which rely on voter self-reporting, this market uses real-money bets to reflect trader sentiment. Currently, the odds imply a very high probability of the event occurring, diverging sharply from typical polling margins. This gap can highlight market expectations that differ from public opinion trends, offering a complementary perspective on political behavior.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously adjust the price based on new information and expectations, resulting in a dynamic, market-driven probability. The current top outcome reflects the collective bet of participants, with volume of $855,595 indicating liquidity and interest. Prices shift rapidly in response to news, statements, or any activity that alters the perceived likelihood.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If Trump makes a public insult during the defined period, it resolves accordingly; otherwise, it settles on the alternate result. The process relies on publicly available evidence without requiring official declarations or internal assessments.

Market movement will likely hinge on Trump’s public appearances, social media activity, and media coverage leading up to Sep 1, 2026. Any high-profile speech, rally, or interview where he addresses specific individuals could shift probabilities. Conversely, a calm public schedule or absence of provocative commentary may push odds downward, reflecting evolving trader expectations.