TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 5:24 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 23 - 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to how much "Wildwood" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 23 - 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts for the opening weekend of Wildwood. While some analysts predict a strong opening based on pre-release buzz, this market suggests a more cautious expectation. This discrepancy could be due to the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, where the collective judgment of many traders incorporates a wider range of factors than individual analyst reports. It’s important to note that these are just forecasts, and the actual box office numbers may vary.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final opening weekend box office gross of Wildwood. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, with increased buying pressure raising the price and indicating growing confidence in a particular outcome. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official opening weekend box office numbers for Wildwood are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total domestic box office gross reported by a trusted source, such as Box Office Mojo or Comscore. Traders will then be able to see which outcome was correct and receive payouts accordingly. The market will close prior to the official reporting to prevent any last-minute manipulation.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Positive or negative reviews from critics, strong or weak early ticket sales, and the overall marketing campaign's effectiveness are all potential catalysts. Unexpected news surrounding the film’s cast or director could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, the release of competing films during the same weekend could shift audience attention and affect expectations for Wildwood’s box office performance. Any major shifts in these areas could lead to substantial price movements in this market.
