TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 2, 3:31 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Wicker is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on November 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the displayed Rotten Tomatoes "All Critics" Tomatometer score for Wicker is at least equal to the specified number at 10:00 AM ET on November 2, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable at this market's specified end time, the resolution source will be checked until the relevant data is available. This market will resolve to "No" if no data is available by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a different perspective than many pre-release analyst forecasts. While some critics are predicting a strong showing for Wicker, the market is showing a more uncertain outlook. This discrepancy highlights how prediction markets can aggregate diverse opinions and potentially offer a more accurate forecast than individual predictions. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on limited information and subjective assessments, whereas this market reflects real-money wagers.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing different Rotten Tomatoes score ranges. The price of each share reflects the probability of that score range being the final outcome, as determined by the collective actions of all traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for shares in a particular range, the higher the price, and the greater the implied probability. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final Rotten Tomatoes score for Wicker is publicly available and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the percentage score reported by Rotten Tomatoes, reflecting the proportion of positive reviews received by the film. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final score and the shares they hold in the corresponding outcome range.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before it resolves. Early reviews from film festivals or pre-release screenings will likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Any major publicity events, such as interviews with the director or cast, could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, the release of the official trailer and any associated critical reception will be key catalysts. Negative press or disappointing early reactions could drive the price of lower score ranges up, while positive buzz would likely boost the higher ranges.