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Who will the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?
Politics
kalshi
polymarket

Who will be the Trump admin next nominate as SCOTUS Justice?

Total volume:
$684,071
Volume 24h:
$2,473
267%
Liquidity:
$6,266
11%
Open interest:
$394,837
0.07%

Aileen Cannon

all

2 markets

Polymarket

29%

Kalshi

9.9%

consensus

19.5%

-1%

spread

9.9-29%

(19.1pp)

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 25

Aug 27

Aug 28

Vol.

$20.4

·

Resolves Jan 21, 2029

Will Aileen Cannon be the next Supreme Court nominee?

29%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 29¢ buys you 345 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $345 | Net Profit: $245 Multiplier: 3.45x | ROI: 245% | APY: 68% Low liquidity 875 days to resolution
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 9.9¢ buys you 1,010 shares | Odds: 12% Total Payout: $1,010 | Net Profit: $910 Multiplier: 10.10x | ROI: 910% | APY: 162% 877 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 50

Description

These markets ask which candidate will be the next person formally nominated by the Trump administration to serve as a Supreme Court Justice, with resolution by January 19-20, 2029. Kalshi lists 36 specific named candidates plus implicit 'Other', while Polymarket uses coded candidate letters (A-T) with some named individuals and an explicit 'Other' option.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure different events in the nomination-to-confirmation pipeline. Kalshi requires Senate confirmation by January 20, 2029; Polymarket requires only formal nomination submission by January 19, 2029 at 11:59 PM ET. These are separated by weeks or months in real time, making simultaneous resolution impossible and creating a logical contradiction in the event group.Hero tip: These are two distinct markets with different resolution triggers. Polymarket resolves on nomination announcement (earlier); Kalshi resolves on Senate confirmation (later). A single Trump SCOTUS nominee could resolve Polymarket YES while leaving Kalshi unresolved or resolving to Other if confirmation does not occur by January 20, 2029. Treat them as separate bets on different milestones.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if a named candidate is 'first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029'. Resolution event is Senate confirmation vote (final approval). Implicit 'Other' if none of the 36 named candidates are confirmed by deadline.
  • Polymarket: Resolves based on 'the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET', defined as submission of nomination message to U.S. Senate. Resolution event is presidential nomination announcement (initial submission). Explicit 'Other' option if no nomination occurs by deadline.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

If Amul Thapar is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Neomi Rao is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Ho is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Andrew Oldham is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stuart Kyle Duncan is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lawrence VanDyke is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Matthew Kacsmaryk is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Aileen Cannon is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kathryn Mizelle is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Trevor McFadden is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Evan Young is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Clint Bolick is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kevin Brobson is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Joan Larsen is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gregory G. Katsas is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Patrick Bumatay is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kenneth Lee is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Barbara Lagoa is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Britt Grant is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kevin Newsom is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michael Park is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If David Stras is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Allison Jones Rushing is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kate Comerford Todd is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Patrick Wyrick is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kristen Waggoner is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Cotton is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mike Lee is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Morse Tan is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mark Martin is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Allison Eid is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ted Cruz is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Stephanos Bibas is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Emil Bove is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If D. John Sauer is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ron DeSantis is the first person confirmed by the Senate to the position of Justice of the Supreme Court by January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

PredictionHero aggregates real-time odds on the next Trump SCOTUS nomination across Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the largest prediction markets for political events. This dashboard consolidates trader sentiment on which candidate will receive the nomination, reflecting live probability estimates as new information emerges. By tracking the same question across multiple platforms, you gain visibility into consensus forecasts and spot divergences that may signal market inefficiency or platform-specific trading patterns. Current aggregate volume stands at $671,820, with $1,190 traded in the last 24 hours, indicating active participation from informed traders.

Prediction markets and traditional polls measure different things. Polls capture stated preferences at a snapshot in time, while markets aggregate real-money bets on actual outcomes, creating financial incentives for accuracy. Traders on this market are wagering on who will genuinely be nominated, not merely expressing a preference. This often makes market odds more forward-looking and responsive to breaking news, insider signals, and shifting political dynamics than conventional surveys. Markets also incorporate uncertainty more explicitly through price ranges, whereas polls typically report point estimates with margins of error.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct regulatory frameworks, user bases, and liquidity pools. Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated exchange, attracts institutional traders and enforces stricter position limits, while Polymarket draws a broader retail and international audience with different risk tolerances. Differences in order-book depth, fee structures, and settlement procedures can cause temporary price gaps. Additionally, traders may hold stronger convictions on one platform or face geographic restrictions that fragment the market. These spreads typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit mispricings, but persistent divergences reveal where each platform's community places different weight on candidate viability.

This market resolves around Jan 21, 2029, after which no further trades are accepted. The outcome is determined once the nomination is officially announced and verified against credible public sources, including official White House statements and major news outlets. Resolution hinges on identifying the specific individual nominated to fill the next Supreme Court vacancy during the Trump administration. Markets typically close trading shortly before or immediately after the formal announcement to prevent late-breaking information from distorting final prices.

Key catalysts include public statements from Trump or his advisors narrowing the field, vetting reports on leading candidates, Senate Judiciary Committee activity, and unexpected judicial vacancies. Media coverage of candidate backgrounds, judicial philosophy, and confirmation likelihood will shift trader expectations. Political developments such as midterm results or shifts in Senate composition affect confirmation odds and thus nomination strategy. Candidate withdrawals, health issues, or scandal revelations can rapidly reprrice the market. Finally, any indication of Trump's timeline for nomination—whether immediate or delayed—will influence which candidates traders favor and overall market volatility.