TOTAL VOLUME:
$116b
24H VOL:
$102,609,488
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,351,258,445
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,143,050,771
321,815
Markets across
31,693
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,482
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
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Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Above $5.51
- Kalshi
Above $5.51 - Kalshi
97%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 18
Aug 19
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 25
Vol.
$75.0
·
Resolves Sep 30, 2026
Related News
Time left: 07d:03h:04m
Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $5.51 on Aug 31?
$
Intro
This market tracks which company will have the best AI model as of the end of September 2026, according to the arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard. The aggregated consensus across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Opinion shows a leading probability of 94.0%. The resolution will be determined by the arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard. Watch for the leaderboard update on September 30, 2026, which will conclude the evaluation period and determine the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms use arena.ai's Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard rankings as of September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET to determine the winning company, with consistent tiebreaker rules.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) LeaderboardCore resolution logic:
- Rankings are determined by the position on arena.ai's Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard as of September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
- Tied ranks are broken by Arena score (including unrounded values)
- Alphabetical order of company names is used as a final tiebreaker
- If arena.ai is unavailable at check time, the market remains open until the leaderboard returns, or resolves to "Other" if permanently unavailable
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Permanent Source Unavailability: If arena.ai's leaderboard is permanently unavailable, all markets resolve to "Other"
- Tie After All Tiebreakers: If models remain tied after all tiebreakers, the market resolves to "Other"
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the B200 compute per hour value reported by Ornn (https://dashboard.ornnai.com/) as of August 31, 2026. Each market has a specific price threshold, and if the reported value exceeds that threshold on the expiration date, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Revisions to the underlying data after the expiration date are disregarded. The USD iteration of the index is used unless otherwise specified. If no data is available for the specified time period by the expiration date, all markets except those labeled "No data" or "None" automatically resolve to No. All monetary values are rounded to two decimal places before comparison with the threshold.
Opinion
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on this market often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and rapid updates from tech developments. While analysts may rely on published reports and quarterly results, market participants can react instantly to new papers, product demos, or hiring announcements. This creates a dynamic, sometimes more volatile indicator of expectations that can either align with or sharply contrast established expert views, depending on recent events and perceived momentum.
On Polymarket and Opinion, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading activity. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more tech-focused traders who react quickly to new research releases, while another could have a broader user base that leans on headline news. The resulting odds reflect these distinct participant dynamics, meaning Polymarket and Opinion may show different probabilities even though they’re tracking the same question.
This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Judges will assess publicly available benchmarks, expert reviews, and major technology announcements to decide which company’s AI model is regarded as the strongest at that moment. The process relies on widely recognized performance metrics and third-party validations rather than internal assessments.
Key signals that could shift this market include major product launches, benchmark test results, high-profile partnerships, or regulatory decisions affecting leading AI firms. Any surprise announcement — such as a breakthrough architecture or a sudden leadership change — may cause rapid repricing as traders reassess probabilities. Even minor updates, like a well-received research paper from a top lab, can create noticeable movement in the days ahead of Sep 30, 2026.
