TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.7b

24H VOL:

$138,759,860

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,317,581,230

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,188,111,033

332,759

Markets across

32,396

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,975

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Which company has best AI model end of August?
kalshi
polymarket
predict

Which company has best AI model end of August?

Total volume:
$2,425,122
Volume 24h:
$151,893
126%
Liquidity:
$5,991,454
6%
Open interest:
$97,880
0%

Anthropic

all

3 markets

Predict

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 09d:15h:08m

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 98.7¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 70% 9 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

Anthropic

Trade
98%
Yes 98.7¢No 2.4¢
1.1¢
$4,456,839
$7,279
2%
180%
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
98%
Yes 98.4¢No 2.3¢
0.7¢
$20,881
$458,285
3%
29%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,340
N/A
N/A
$13,964
0d 0h 0m
No
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
98.7%
Yes 99¢No 1.6¢
Avg: 33.9¢Max: 100¢
predict

Google

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,717
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Google

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$38,240
$191,964
8%
49%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.3¢Max: 0.3¢
predict

SpaceXAI

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,562
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$34,840
$210,107
3%
55%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Meta

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,845
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Meta

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$54,093
$179,770
4%
29%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

DeepSeek

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$51,154
$287,538
8%
35%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
predict

Baidu

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$64,171
$35,032
0%
133%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Xiaomi

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,776
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$31,915
$41,009
273%
273%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Mistral

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$66,702
$4,351
0%
0%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Nvidia

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,831
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Nvidia

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$63,689
$11,465
0%
0%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Moonshot

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,955
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$33,705
$119,735
2%
12%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Amazon

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$62,513
$9,778
0%
0%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
predict

Bytedance

Trade
N/A
N/A
—
$29,751
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 2d 15h
active
polymarket

Bytedance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$48,855
$137,518
0%
55%
N/A
1w 1d 23h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
Avg: —Max: —
Total markets: 25 of 50

Intro

This market tracks which company will have the best AI model at the end of August 2026, based on aggregated data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Predict. The current consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 99.8%, with resolution determined by the arena.ai Text Arena Overall Leaderboard. Watch for the leaderboard update on August 31, 2026, which will conclude the evaluation period and set the final rankings.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same resolution source and logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard as of August 31, 2026, with rank, Arena score, and alphabetical order as tiebreakers.Primary resolution logic: arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) Leaderboard

Core resolution logic:

  • Models are ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
  • If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values
  • If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in the market group will be used as a final tiebreaker
  • If the resolution source is unavailable at check time, the market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available
  • If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to "Other"

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Permanent Unavailability of Source: If arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) becomes permanently unavailable, all markets resolve to "Other"
  • Tie in Arena Score: If models are tied on both rank and Arena score, alphabetical order of company names is used as the final tiebreaker
Timing: Resolution occurs on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET, or the first available check after if the source is temporarily unavailableOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Each market resolves if the specified company's LLM holds the top rank on August 3, 2026. Tie-breaking follows a strict sequence: first by Rank (UB), then by highest Arena Score, followed by most votes, and finally by release date if previous criteria remain equal. When reviewing leaderboard data, users must enable the 'Remove Style Control' toggle. As with all markets, Kalshi emphasizes it has no official connection to the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the AI model leadership market aggregates betting data from multiple venues, showing real-time probabilities and volume across platforms. It visualizes how traders on different prediction markets price the chances of various companies leading in AI model performance. The view combines data points such as total volume of $2,425,122 and recent 24-hour volume of $152,107, giving users insight into market sentiment and liquidity trends as they relate to the top contenders.

Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time betting activity and can react faster to new information. While analysts may issue reports based on research and historical trends, this market prices in crowd-sourced expectations and can show sharper shifts after key announcements or benchmark releases. Traders watch both sources closely, as divergences can signal upcoming moves or shifts in sentiment.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Judges will compare benchmark results, expert reviews, and widely recognized performance metrics to determine the leader. The process relies on publicly available data rather than any single source, ensuring transparency for all participants.

Key events such as major product releases, benchmark tests, industry awards, or high-profile analyst reports could shift this market. Any announcement that changes perceptions of technical capabilities or market momentum may cause rapid adjustments in odds. Traders typically monitor tech news outlets, corporate earnings calls, and community feedback for early signals that might affect probabilities before Aug 31, 2026.