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Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
polymarket

Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?

Jun 26, 2026, 4:57 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$46,215
Volume 24h:
$1,027
32%
Liquidity:
$11,797
15%
Open interest:
$13,422N/A

Tampa, FL

 - Polymarket

Tampa, FL - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 89.1¢ buys you 112 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $112 | Net Profit: $12 Multiplier: 1.12x | ROI: 12% | APY: 57% Low liquidity 93 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Tampa, FL

Trade
88%
1%
Yes 89.1¢No 13¢
2.1¢
$221
$3,159
0%
13%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Philadelphia, PA

Trade
87%
Yes 36¢No 95¢
31¢
$1,356
$164
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Las Vegas, NV

Trade
86%
Yes 87¢No 15¢
2¢
$549
$4,884
0%
0.97%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

San Diego, CA

Trade
79%
1%
Yes 79¢No 22¢
1¢
$918
$5,174
0%
10%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Denver, CO

Trade
69%
4%
Yes 71¢No 34¢
5¢
$823
$8,133
0.25%
45%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Sacramento, CA

Trade
23%
1%
Yes 26¢No 81¢
7¢
$140
$3,497
28%
46%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Chicago, IL

Trade
13%
Yes 22¢No 95¢
17¢
$870
$970
0%
15%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Detroit, MI

Trade
10%
1%
Yes 11¢No 92¢
3¢
$342
$1,129
7%
13%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

New Orleans, LA

Trade
9%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
$126
$850
0%
0.11%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Washington, DC

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
$113
$1,632
0%
2%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Minneapolis, MN

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
$506
$2,414
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Seattle, WA

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 29¢No 94¢
23¢
$900
$832
7%
32%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Portland, OR

Trade
7%
Yes 8¢No 95¢
3¢
$448
$2,805
0%
3%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

New York, NY

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$255
$1,764
0%
6%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Pittsburgh, PA

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$240
$962
8%
8%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

London, UK

Trade
6%
Yes 7¢No 95¢
2¢
$199
$862
0%
13%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Tokyo, Japan

Trade
6%
Yes 9¢No 97¢
6¢
$1,354
$529
0%
1%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Charlotte, NC

Trade
6%
Yes 19¢No 94¢
13¢
$76
$498
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

St. Louis, MO

Trade
6%
Yes 31¢No 94¢
25¢
$71
$190
0%
238%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Baltimore, MD

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
$159
$1,365
3%
3%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
polymarket

Boston, MA

Trade
4%
Yes 4.1¢No 96.9¢
1¢
$2,131
$4,400
0%
0%
N/A
3mo 3d
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Waymo expansion market tracks the current odds of various cities being selected for Waymo’s launch by December 31, 2026. You can view the implied probabilities for each potential city, along with the total volume traded, which currently stands at $46,215. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $1,027, providing insight into recent trading activity and market interest. This allows traders to quickly assess which cities are considered most likely to see Waymo’s expansion and how sentiment is shifting.

Currently, there is no direct comparison to sportsbook odds available for this market, as sportsbooks are not yet offering odds on Waymo’s specific expansion plans. However, it’s often the case that prediction markets, like this one, can reflect collective intelligence and potentially offer different insights than traditional betting venues. Analysts following the autonomous vehicle industry generally agree that several major metropolitan areas are strong contenders for Waymo’s next launch locations, but their predictions vary in probability, mirroring the range of possibilities reflected in this market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether Waymo will launch in a specific city by the resolution date. The price of each share directly reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. Currently, the market indicates that San Diego, CA has the highest probability of seeing a Waymo launch, with a chance percentage of 88.0%.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will assess whether Waymo has officially announced and begun commercial operations in each listed city before the end of 2026. Any official launch announcements from Waymo, supported by reliable news sources, will be used to determine the winning outcomes. The resolution will be based on publicly available information regarding Waymo’s operational footprint.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Official announcements from Waymo regarding expansion plans are the most direct catalyst. Positive regulatory developments in potential launch cities, such as approvals for autonomous vehicle testing or commercial deployment, could also drive up the odds. Conversely, setbacks like safety concerns, legal challenges, or delays in permitting could lower probabilities. Major technological advancements from Waymo or its competitors, and news regarding funding or partnerships, could also influence trading activity and shift expectations within this market.