TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.8b
24H VOL:
$74,316,137
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,155,356,965
338,521
Markets across
33,297
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,228
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
No Meeting by September 30
- Polymarket
No Meeting by September 30 - Polymarket
78.9%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
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Aug 26
Aug 27
Vol.
$207k
·
Resolves Sep 30, 2026
$
This market tracks whether the next formal senior-level round of U.S.-Iran peace talks will occur by September 30, 2026, with the leading outcome on Polymarket currently at 73.9% and the second outcome at 10.5%. The resolution source is official information from the U.S. and Iranian governments and credible media reporting. Watch for developments leading up to the September 30, 2026 deadline, which determines whether a qualifying meeting occurs in the specified timeframe.
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If a qualifying round occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on the country where the first qualifying senior-level diplomatic session begins. If the next qualifying round begins in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa.” If the next qualifying round begins in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe.” For purposes of this market, countries’ regions will be determined based on the U.S. State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East/North Africa. If the next qualifying round begins in any unlisted country that is not classified in either specified region, this market will resolve to “Other.” If no qualifying round begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by September 30.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction market odds differ fundamentally from traditional polling because they reflect real financial incentives rather than stated preferences. In this market, traders are betting money on where US-Iran peace talks will occur, creating a price discovery mechanism that often incorporates information faster than conventional surveys. While polls measure public opinion or expert sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate dispersed knowledge from participants with skin in the game. This market's odds represent a dynamic consensus shaped by breaking news, diplomatic signals, and geopolitical shifts that traditional polling may lag in capturing.
On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that converts each outcome into a tradeable contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The leading outcome—that the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting will be held in Switzerland by September 30, 2026—currently trades at 78.8% probability. Traders buy and sell shares representing different venues, and the price of each contract reflects the collective belief about its likelihood. As new information surfaces, prices adjust in real time, allowing participants to profit from accurate predictions or hedge against unfavorable outcomes.
This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, at which point the outcome will be confirmed based on verified public reporting of where the next round of US-Iran peace talks actually takes place. The resolution hinges on credible announcements from diplomatic sources, government statements, or established news outlets documenting the official location of these negotiations. Once the venue is publicly confirmed and the date falls within the market's timeframe, traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout. Until then, prices remain fluid as geopolitical conditions and diplomatic calendars evolve.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before resolution. Official announcements from US State Department or Iranian foreign ministry representatives naming a specific venue would trigger immediate repricing. Diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations in US-Iran tensions could alter the perceived likelihood of talks occurring at all, or change which neutral venues seem most feasible. Regional developments—sanctions relief, nuclear negotiations progress, or UN involvement—may favor certain locations over others. Media reports of preliminary venue discussions, shuttle diplomacy, or third-party mediation efforts would also move prices as traders update their probability estimates based on fresh intelligence.