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OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
kalshi

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Mar 17, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$46,469,221
Volume 24h:
$106,068
58%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$13,941,343
0.24%

Before Jan 1, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2029 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029?

68%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 68% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% High Projected APY: 508% 78 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2029

Trade
68%
2%
Yes 68¢No 33¢
1¢
N/A
$40,568
0.34%
1%
$23,583
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2028

Trade
63%
Yes 64¢No 37¢
1¢
N/A
$33,535
0.02%
0.64%
$20,639
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2028

Trade
54%
Yes 54¢No 47¢
1¢
N/A
$65,074
2%
6%
$36,698
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2027

Trade
45%
5%
Yes 46¢No 55¢
1¢
N/A
$4,105
6%
N/A
$3,465
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2027

Trade
43%
2%
Yes 44¢No 57¢
1¢
N/A
$42,106
324%
N/A
$31,622
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2027

Trade
39%
3%
Yes 39¢No 64¢
3¢
N/A
$1,230
174%
N/A
$1,167
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2027

Trade
38%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
N/A
$877
0.92%
N/A
$413
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2027

Trade
35%
4%
Yes 37¢No 67¢
4¢
N/A
$1,848
0.05%
N/A
$1,437
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2027

Trade
35%
6%
Yes 35¢No 66¢
1¢
N/A
$1,629,172
0.05%
0.59%
$417,896
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2027

Trade
34%
Yes 34¢No 67¢
1¢
N/A
$253
0%
N/A
$252
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

Trade
31%
5%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
N/A
$345
10%
N/A
$314
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
22%
3%
Yes 23¢No 78¢
1¢
N/A
$834,099
0.16%
1%
$259,004
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
17%
Yes 14¢No 87¢
1¢
N/A
$507
0%
N/A
$451
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
N/A
$2,825
108%
N/A
$2,020
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
7%
Yes 7.1¢No 93.9¢
1¢
N/A
$3,283,644
1%
5%
$1,265,568
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 97¢
1¢
N/A
$1,364,984
2%
8%
$533,904
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$2,422,373
0.03%
12%
$1,219,573
2mo 2w 4d
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$52,137
N/A
N/A
$40,186
Settled
No
kalshi

Before Jun 15, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,682,385
N/A
N/A
$502,991
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,756,962
N/A
N/A
$1,057,694
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before May 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,943,366
N/A
N/A
$847,910
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before May 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,480,402
N/A
N/A
$639,233
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before Apr 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,025,026
N/A
N/A
$473,293
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,832,948
N/A
N/A
$1,954,444
2mo 2w 4d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,302,870
N/A
N/A
$947,870
2mo 2w 4d
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks whether the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, will exceed 60 before January 1, 2029. Currently, the leading outcome – that transit levels *will* be above 60 – is priced at 69.0% on Kalshi. The resolution source for this market is the IMF PortWatch data, specifically looking at the 7-day moving average of transit calls. Traders should closely watch maritime traffic data leading up to January 1, 2027, as this is the date by which the IMF PortWatch data will be assessed to determine if the market resolves to ‘Yes’.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz exceeding 60 as reported by IMF PortWatch. The market is structured as a series of sequential date-based outcomes, each asking whether this threshold is reached before specific dates ranging from April 15, 2026 through July 1, 2027. Once the 7-day moving average surpasses 60 on any date, the earliest applicable market resolves to Yes while later markets also resolve to Yes. If the threshold is never reached by July 1, 2027, all markets resolve to No. Data is based on official IMF PortWatch reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz traffic market displays the current implied probability of transit calls exceeding 60 per day, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, before January 1, 2029. You’ll also find a price history chart showing how the market has traded over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $105,060. Total volume traded to date in this market is $18,214,751, indicating significant interest in forecasting this geopolitical event. The top outcome currently has a chance percentage of 68.0%.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a roughly 68% probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz will be above 60 before January 1, 2029. This contrasts with recent expert analyses, which are more divided on the potential for disruptions. While polls and expert opinions offer valuable insights, this market aggregates the wisdom of many traders, creating a dynamic forecast that reflects real-time assessments of risk and opportunity. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information not captured in traditional surveys.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting the price based on their beliefs about the likelihood of the event occurring. The price reflects the probability that the 7-day moving average of transit calls will exceed 60 before the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price will adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a highly liquid and efficient forecast.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch. If this average exceeds 60 at any point before the resolution date, the market will settle in favor of the ‘yes’ outcome. Otherwise, it will settle in favor of ‘no’. Traders should monitor developments related to geopolitical tensions and shipping activity in the region as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions between Iran and other regional or global powers, such as the United States, would likely increase the perceived risk of disruptions to shipping traffic. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation efforts could lower those risks. Major incidents affecting oil tankers or other commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz would also be a key catalyst. Additionally, changes in oil prices or global economic conditions could influence shipping patterns and, consequently, the market's price.