TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.8b
24H VOL:
$74,316,137
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,155,356,965
338,521
Markets across
33,297
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,228
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Jared / Isaacman
- Kalshi
Jared / Isaacman - Kalshi
98%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Aug 21
Aug 22
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Aug 26
Aug 27
Vol.
$9.5k
·
Resolves Sep 12, 2026
Time left: 16d:05h:52m
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This event tracks whether Donald Trump will mention specific phrases during his official remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. The outcome depends on the exact wording used during the speech, with precise criteria for what constitutes a qualifying mention.
Multiple markets exist under this event, each tied to a specific phrase or term that Donald Trump might say during his remarks at NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. All markets share a common resolution process: live video broadcast or stream is the primary source, with official transcripts used as a fallback if video consensus cannot be reached. Each market resolves to 'Yes' only if Trump utters the exact specified phrase (or its plural/possessive form) in an official capacity during the address. Grammatical variations, inaudible moments, private conversations, and content from unrelated recordings do not count. If the event is canceled, all markets except 'Event does not qualify' resolve to 'No.' If postponed and rescheduled within 14 days, markets remain open. The broad structure ensures consistent evaluation across all phrase-specific markets.
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds reflect a synthesis of public speculation, media narratives, and trader sentiment leading up to the event. While analysts may offer detailed policy or speech-content predictions based on historical data and statements, this market captures crowd-sourced expectations that can shift rapidly with new developments or polling data. Traders may price in scenarios analysts consider unlikely, creating potential divergence between traditional forecasts and market-implied probabilities.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding and order placement, with the top outcome’s current chance represented by 98.0%. Market depth and liquidity, reflected in volume of $265,248, help determine how responsive prices are to new information. The pricing mechanism allows participants to bet on nuanced outcomes, adjusting for real-time news, polling updates, and public statements surrounding the event.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. After the remarks conclude, analysts and platform verifiers will compare the actual statements against predefined outcome categories. The result is finalized when authoritative news sources and official transcripts consistently support a single interpretation, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Major news releases, including prepared speech excerpts, polling data on public reaction, and commentary from political advisors or media analysts, may influence trader sentiment. Surprise cancellations or changes to the speaking schedule could also cause rapid price adjustments. Additionally, broader political events or statements from related figures may affect expectations about tone and content, driving volatility in the market as the Sep 12, 2026 approaches.