TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 2:09 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such video is posted by MrBeast by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Polymarket
MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If no such video is posted by MrBeast by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the released video from (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast). Note: This market refers to MrBeast's next video posted. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Frequently asked questions
Currently, assessing how prediction market odds compare to analyst forecasts for MrBeast’s video content is challenging, as dedicated analysts focusing on predicting his exact statements are rare. However, this market offers a unique ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, aggregating the beliefs of many individuals regarding potential content. Traditional social media sentiment analysis and trend reports can provide some comparison, but they often lack the focused, probabilistic nature of this market. The current odds reflect what traders believe is most likely to occur, potentially differing from broader speculation.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential content. The market’s depth and liquidity are determined by the number of traders actively participating and the volume of shares traded.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once MrBeast’s next YouTube video is publicly released and the content of his statements is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by whether or not a specific statement, as defined by the market’s options, appears verbatim in the video’s spoken or on-screen text. The resolution will be based on the complete and unedited version of the video available on MrBeast’s official YouTube channel.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 3, 2026. Any official teasers or previews released by MrBeast or his team regarding the upcoming video’s content would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Major news events or trending topics that align with MrBeast’s typical content themes could also influence trading activity. Unexpected collaborations or announcements related to the video’s production could also be catalysts. Increased social media discussion or speculation about potential content could also drive volume and price changes in this market.
