TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Trump (3+ times)
- Kalshi
Trump (3+ times) - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Feb 1, 2027
$
This event tracks whether specific phrases will be mentioned during the next White House Press Briefing, focusing on politically and economically relevant topics. The resolution depends on the official broadcast or stream of the briefing, ensuring transparency and real-time verification.
The event consists of multiple markets, each centered around whether the White House Press Secretary utters a specific phrase during the next official press briefing. Each market defines a particular phrase or set of related terms (e.g., "Trump," "Election," "Economy"). The market resolves to "Yes" if the exact phrase, or its plural/possessive form, is spoken during the live, televised, or streamed briefing. Verification is conducted using the live broadcast; if consensus cannot be reached, official transcripts are consulted. Grammatical variations or inflections do not count, and only statements made in an official capacity during the briefing qualify. Private conversations, hot mic incidents, archival footage, or unaired content are excluded from consideration. The event specifically excludes gaggles—informal gatherings distinct from formal briefings—ensuring only formal addresses are evaluated.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. While analysts often provide qualitative assessments, this market quantifies expectations about specific statements from Katie Zacharia. If analysts widely anticipate a certain topic to be addressed, we’d expect to see higher prices for related outcomes in this market. However, discrepancies can emerge, potentially indicating that traders possess information or perspectives not fully captured by traditional analysis. It is important to remember that this market reflects what traders believe will happen, not necessarily what analysts predict.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential statements, and the price of each contract reflects the probability of that statement being made. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and order book are visible on the Kalshi interface, allowing traders to assess the available liquidity and potential price movements. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, following the next White House press briefing with Katie Zacharia. The outcome will be determined by a review of the official transcript of the briefing, verified against credible public reporting. The market will settle to 100 for the outcome(s) corresponding to statements actually made by the Press Secretary during the briefing, and 0 for all other outcomes. Traders should monitor news coverage and official sources as the resolution date approaches to stay informed about the event and potential settlement.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any indication of a shift in White House policy priorities, or a major news event related to topics frequently addressed by the Press Secretary, could influence trader behavior. Pre-briefing statements or leaks regarding the intended focus of the briefing would also be impactful. Unexpected economic data releases or geopolitical developments could also prompt traders to reassess the likelihood of certain statements being made, leading to price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding market movements.