TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
What will be the top US Netflix show?
The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 22h:59m:02s
Will "The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series" be the top US Netflix show this week?
$
The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series
Description
This prediction market asks forecasters to predict which Netflix show will be ranked #1 in the US for the week of November 3, 2026, based on Netflix's publicly reported Top 10 list. The markets aim to determine the most popular show on the platform during that specific timeframe.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi lists multiple shows that would resolve the market to 'Yes', while Polymarket has individual markets for each show and an 'Other' option.Hero tip: Consider the implied probabilities across platforms. Kalshi's bundled nature may inflate the probability of any single show winning, while Polymarket offers more precise individual show probabilities.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Netflix's Top 10 list published on November 3, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET. If multiple shows tie for #1, the show whose title comes first alphabetically wins. Includes an 'Other' option if the update doesn't occur by November 6, 2026.
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if *any* of the 13 listed shows is ranked #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on November 3, 2026.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines which Netflix show ranks highest on the US Top 10 Show chart for the week ending the Sunday before November 3, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific show, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that show occupies the number one position on the chart published on November 3, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication date. Participants should note that neither Netflix nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and all references to Netflix are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective factors or studio announcements, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to make accurate predictions. The real-time price discovery process can incorporate a wider range of information, including social media trends and viewership data, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts. While analyst opinions can be valuable, the aggregated predictions within this market offer a unique and dynamic assessment of which show will be the top US Netflix show.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and liquidity levels, which can influence price discovery. The volume of trading on each platform also plays a role; higher volume generally leads to tighter spreads and more efficient pricing. Additionally, differing risk appetites among traders on each platform can contribute to price discrepancies. These variations are natural in decentralized markets and provide opportunities for arbitrage, where traders can profit from price differences across venues.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The top US Netflix show will be determined based on publicly available viewership data from a recognized source, such as Nielsen or directly from Netflix’s official rankings. The market will settle to the show that holds the top position according to these metrics during the specified week. Traders can monitor the progress of various shows and adjust their positions accordingly as new data becomes available leading up to the resolution date.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding new show releases or renewals could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected surges in viewership for a particular show, driven by social media buzz or critical acclaim, could also cause the odds to change. Furthermore, any news related to the production or availability of competing shows could influence predictions. Tracking these developments and understanding their potential impact on viewership is crucial for traders looking to capitalize on opportunities in this market.
