TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 6:58 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on pre-release buzz and studio projections, this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, reacting to actual viewership data and trending topics as they emerge. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially in the early stages of the week, as the market adjusts to initial viewing figures. This dynamic makes this market a valuable tool for gauging real-time audience preferences, potentially diverging from pre-event expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each movie's likelihood of topping the charts. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that movie winning. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares purchased for a particular movie, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing system that constantly updates as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions based on their own analysis and insights.
This market resolves around Oct 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top movie on US Netflix is verified against credible public reporting. The determination will be based on the official Netflix top 10 list for the relevant week, as reported by a widely recognized and impartial source. The market will settle to the movie that holds the number one position on that list at the time of resolution. This ensures a transparent and objective outcome for all participants in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. A major marketing push for a particular movie, positive critical reviews, or strong social media buzz could all drive increased trading volume and shift the odds. Unexpected releases of new trailers or promotional content could also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, real-time viewership data, even early indicators, can cause rapid adjustments in the market as traders react to emerging trends. Any significant news or events related to the featured movies have the potential to move this market considerably before Oct 28, 2026.
