TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:57 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to incorporate information more rapidly than traditional forecasts, reflecting real-time shifts in public attention and viewing habits. While analysts may rely on pre-release buzz or historical data, the market aggregates the predictions of many individuals, potentially leading to more accurate assessments of which movie will achieve top billing. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the crowd perceives information differently than experts.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each movie’s probability of being the top film. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people trade, the prices adjust, reflecting the evolving consensus. Higher trading volume generally indicates greater interest and potentially more accurate price discovery, while lower volume might suggest uncertainty or limited information available to traders.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top movie on US Netflix for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from Netflix’s official top 10 lists or similar reliable sources that track weekly viewership. The market will determine which film held the number one spot for the majority of the week in question, providing a clear and objective outcome based on actual viewing data.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major marketing pushes for new releases, critical reviews, or viral social media trends surrounding specific films could all shift trading activity. Unexpected drops in viewership for currently popular movies, or the addition of a highly anticipated title to Netflix’s library, could also cause substantial price fluctuations. Furthermore, any news related to cast members or directors involved in the leading contenders could influence traders’ perceptions and impact the odds in this market.
