TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:55 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on pre-release buzz, critic reviews, and historical performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating real-time viewing data and user preferences as they become apparent. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as the market can quickly adapt to unexpected trends or shifts in popularity. Comparing this market to analyst predictions provides a valuable contrast in viewpoints regarding which film will achieve the top spot.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each movie’s likelihood of being number one. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. As more people buy shares in a particular movie, its price increases, and its implied probability rises. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, constantly adjusting to new information and changing sentiment about the potential contenders.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top US Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a widely recognized third-party source tracking streaming performance. The market will settle to 100% in favor of the movie that achieves the highest ranking according to these publicly available metrics, representing the most-watched film during the specified timeframe. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective outcome.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Oct 13, 2026. Unexpected positive or negative reviews, viral social media trends, or major marketing pushes for a particular film could all shift the odds. A surprise release of a highly anticipated movie could also disrupt the current rankings. Furthermore, any news regarding licensing agreements or Netflix’s promotional strategy could influence viewer behavior and, consequently, the market’s predictions. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential movements in this market.
