TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective wisdom versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates an ability to synthesize information quickly, potentially outperforming traditional predictions, especially as new data emerges. However, analysts may offer qualitative insights that aren't fully captured in the quantitative data driving this market. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the influence of public sentiment on trading activity, offering a unique perspective on entertainment trends.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each show’s probability of being #2. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a show will be #2, the higher the share price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the latest information and collective intelligence of participants regarding the US Netflix rankings.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the #2 US Netflix show for the week of October 20 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The ranking will be determined by publicly available data from Netflix’s top 10 lists or similar official sources. The market will settle based on which show holds the #2 position according to these established rankings, providing a clear and objective resolution to this market.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Unexpected viewership surges for a particular show, driven by social media buzz or critical acclaim, would likely increase its odds. Conversely, negative reviews or the release of competing content could decrease a show’s probability. Announcements regarding new seasons or spin-offs could also impact trading activity. Any news related to Netflix’s programming strategy or viewing habits could influence how traders assess the likelihood of each show claiming the #2 spot.
