TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional media predictions or analyst rankings. While analysts might focus on critical reception or pre-release hype, the market reflects real-time viewership data and user preferences as expressed through trading activity. Discrepancies can arise from factors like unexpected viral trends or shifts in audience taste, making this market a unique gauge of entertainment popularity.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each show becoming the #2 most-watched. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders buy shares in a particular show, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market odds continuously adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment among participants.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the #2 most-watched US Netflix show for the week of October 13th is verifiable from credible public reporting. Data sources like Nielsen ratings or official Netflix viewership numbers will be used to determine the winning outcome. The market will settle to 100% probability for the show that holds the #2 position according to these verified metrics, and 0% for all other possibilities.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before Oct 13, 2026. Unexpected releases of highly anticipated shows, major marketing campaigns, or viral social media trends surrounding specific series could all shift trading activity. Positive or negative critical reviews, particularly from influential sources, might also influence market sentiment. Furthermore, any news regarding viewership numbers for currently popular shows could cause traders to reassess their positions, leading to price fluctuations and a change in the perceived likelihood of different outcomes.
