TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (November 3)
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
kalshi

What will be the #2 US Netflix show?

Total volume:
$24,928
Volume 24h:
$1,513
51%
Liquidity:
$8,787
142%
Open interest:
$7,927
22%

Nobody Wants This: Season 3

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 14h:22m:46s

Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nobody Wants This: Season 3

Trade
98%
3%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$4,611
9%
N/A
$1,996
14h 22m
Active
polymarket

Nobody Wants This: Season 3

Trade
97%
1%
Yes 98.7¢No 4¢
2.7¢
$695
$8,913
0.28%
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 21m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
97.6%
Yes 98.9¢No 3¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 2.7¢
polymarket

The Fall of El Mayo: Limited Series

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.6¢No 99.6¢
4.2¢
$1,801
$1,270
3%
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 21m
Active
polymarket

Love Is Blind: S11: Boston

Trade
6%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,309
$503
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 21m
Active
kalshi

Love Is Blind: S11: Boston

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,060
0%
N/A
$1,926
14h 22m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1

Trade
2%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,424
6%
N/A
$1,419
14h 22m
Active
polymarket

The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 2.2¢No 99.7¢
1.9¢
$2,420
$1,472
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 21m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.7%
Yes 1.6¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 1.9¢
kalshi

From: Season 1

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,765
74%
N/A
$1,525
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

Below: Limited Series

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$387
32%
N/A
$387
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

Instadocs: AI Gone Wild

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$103
10%
N/A
$103
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

Raw: 2026 - October 12, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$76
0%
N/A
$76
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

The Diplomat: Season 4

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$525
0%
N/A
$495
14h 22m
Active
polymarket

The Diplomat: Season 4

Trade
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
—
$1,005
$413
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 21m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.6%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

The New Stanford Prison Experiment: Season 1

Trade
1%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
—
$535
$202
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 21m
Active
polymarket

Minimum Wage: Season 1

Trade
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
—
$1,022
$202
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 4h 21m
Active
kalshi

East of Eden: Limited Series

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

TYSON: Limited Series

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

Is It Cake? Halloween: Season 2

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

Michael Che: Shot in Minnesota

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
14h 22m
Active
kalshi

Haunted Hotel: Season 2

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
14h 22m
Active
Total markets: 20

Description

This group asks forecasters to predict which show will be the #2 most-viewed show on Netflix in the US for the week of November 3, 2026, based on Netflix's official Top 10 rankings. The markets rely on the weekly viewership data published by Netflix.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists multiple potential winning shows, while Polymarket focuses on individual shows with an 'Other' option for data unavailability.Hero tip: Prioritize shows listed on both platforms. Be mindful of the 'Other' option on Polymarket if the Netflix update is delayed.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if a specific show is #2. Includes a fallback resolution to 'Other' if the Netflix Top 10 update does not occur by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Source: https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/united-states/tv
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if *any* of 13 listed shows is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US chart published on November 3, 2026. No fallback resolution is specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

The event determines which Netflix show occupies the #2 position on the US Top 10 Show chart for the week ending the Sunday before November 3, 2026, as published on November 3, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific show, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that show ranks exactly #2. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication date. Participants should note that neither Netflix nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and all references to Netflix are purely descriptive.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks which show will be the #2 most-watched series on Netflix in the US during the specified week. The dashboard aggregates trading volume and implied probabilities from both platforms to provide a consensus view of the likely outcome. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $24,928, with $1,516 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? at 97.4%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be #2 US Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026? at 98.0%. This provides a comprehensive look at the US Netflix show market.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially outperforming individual analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or incomplete information, whereas the collective predictions of many traders can aggregate diverse perspectives. While analyst opinions can be valuable, the real-time price discovery in this market incorporates a broader range of data and incentives. The current price action suggests traders are weighing factors such as recent viewership trends, critical reception, and promotional activity to assess the likelihood of different shows achieving the #2 spot.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in user base, trading fees, and market design can lead to price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi. For example, Polymarket might attract a more sophisticated trading community with access to different data sources, while Kalshi could have a larger, more casual participant base. These varying participant profiles can influence how quickly information is incorporated into the market price. Additionally, differing liquidity levels on each platform can contribute to temporary price divergences. The spread between the two platforms is currently 0.6.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The #2 US Netflix show will be determined based on publicly available viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party tracking service. The market will settle to the show that holds the #2 position according to these verified metrics. The resolution will be based on the most accurate and widely accepted data available at that time, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome for all participants in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected releases of new shows or seasons on Netflix could quickly shift viewership patterns. Positive or negative critical reviews, particularly from influential sources, could also sway public opinion. Major social media trends or viral marketing campaigns related to specific shows could drive increased viewership. Finally, any announcements from Netflix regarding viewership numbers or programming changes could directly influence the probabilities reflected in this market. Keep an eye on these signals as they unfold leading up to Nov 4, 2026.