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Polymarket:
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63%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie?
Gladiator II
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 14h:07m:55s
Will Gladiator II be #2 US Netflix Movie on Nov 2, 2026?
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Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex
Description
This prediction market asks forecasters to identify which movie will be ranked #2 on Netflix's Top 10 US Movies list each week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 list published on Tuesdays.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms rely on the official Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart for resolution, with a tie-breaking rule based on alphabetical order.Primary resolution logic: https://www.netflix.com/tudum/top10/united-states/filmsCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to the movie ranked #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart.
- If multiple movies are tied for #2, the movie with the alphabetically earlier title wins.
- Resolution requires the publication of the Netflix Top 10 list by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; otherwise, it resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- List Publication Delay: If Netflix fails to publish the Top 10 list by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other', regardless of any other factors.
- Alphabetical Tie: If two or more movies are tied for the #2 position, the movie with the alphabetically earlier title will be selected as the winner.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the specified films appears at the #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on November 3, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different film, and resolution depends solely on Netflix's official chart ranking for the week ending the Sunday before November 3. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding chart update timing—the Netflix charts refresh on Tuesdays, so the market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, November 2, 2026, to reflect viewing data from the prior week. No endorsement or affiliation exists between Netflix and the event operator; all references to Netflix are purely descriptive. The outcome for each market is binary (Yes/No) based exclusively on the final chart position of its designated film.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional analyst predictions. This is because markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, incentivized to make correct predictions through potential financial gain. While analyst forecasts rely on individual expertise and potentially biased opinions, this market reflects a collective assessment of available information. The current spread between the top two outcomes is 35.5, suggesting a degree of uncertainty, but the market’s price action can reveal shifts in sentiment as new data emerges. This provides a dynamic and real-time view of expectations.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. These include variations in user base, trading fees, and the specific rules governing each platform. Each platform attracts a different demographic of traders with potentially varying levels of expertise in the US Netflix movie market. Furthermore, liquidity can differ between the two venues, impacting price discovery. The volume of $2,708 is distributed between the platforms, and differing trading activity can lead to temporary discrepancies in implied probabilities. These price variations present opportunities for arbitrage.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The #2 US Netflix movie will be determined based on publicly available viewership data from Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking Netflix’s top 10 lists. The outcome will be based on the most-watched movies as reported for the relevant week. This market’s resolution is not dependent on any specific internal data or proprietary source; instead, it relies on widely accessible and verifiable information regarding Netflix’s performance.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected releases of new movies on Netflix, particularly those with high anticipated viewership, are a primary catalyst. Positive or negative critical reviews, social media buzz, and marketing campaigns could also shift public attention and influence viewing habits. Furthermore, changes to Netflix’s algorithm or promotional strategies could alter the visibility of certain titles. Any news regarding the availability of competing content on other streaming platforms could also affect viewership numbers and, consequently, the odds in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding price movements.
