TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for this specific market. While entertainment analysts frequently predict box office success or streaming viewership, pinpointing the *second* most popular movie on Netflix is a more granular prediction. Often, this market can reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially incorporating factors that analysts might overlook, such as social media buzz or unexpected viewer preferences. It’s possible to see if the top contenders in this market align with films receiving positive critical reception or generating online discussion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each movie’s probability of being the number two film. The price of each share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic assessment of the potential contenders. The market’s pricing is solely determined by supply and demand within Polymarket and doesn’t incorporate data from any other source.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the number two movie on US Netflix is verified against credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on Netflix’s official top 10 movie list for the relevant week, as reported by a widely recognized entertainment news source. The market will determine which movie held the second position on that list during the specified period. Traders should monitor the official Netflix rankings as the resolution date approaches to assess the potential outcomes.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 6, 2026. New movie releases, particularly those with high marketing budgets or strong pre-release buzz, are likely to impact the odds. Unexpected positive or negative reviews could also shift sentiment. Social media trends and viral marketing campaigns can rapidly change viewer preferences, potentially boosting a film's popularity. Furthermore, any news regarding cast members or controversies surrounding a movie could influence trading activity in this market, as traders react to the latest information.
