TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on pre-release hype or historical performance, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and real-time viewing data. Discrepancies can arise from factors analysts may overlook, such as viral social media trends or unexpected critical reception. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outperforming static analyst predictions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each show’s probability of being the #2 global Netflix show. As more shares are purchased for a particular show, its price increases, reflecting a higher implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share directly corresponds to the estimated chance of that outcome occurring, allowing traders to express their views and profit if their predictions are accurate. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the #2 global Netflix show for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a widely recognized and trusted third-party source tracking global streaming statistics. The market will settle to 100% in favor of the show that meets the criteria of being the second most-watched show globally during the specified week, as determined by the publicly available data.
Several signals could significantly shift the odds in this market. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for a newly released show could rapidly alter trader sentiment. A surge in social media buzz or viral marketing campaigns could also drive increased interest and trading volume for a particular title. Furthermore, any announcements from Netflix regarding viewership numbers or promotional efforts could directly impact the perceived probability of each show. Unexpected schedule changes or the release of competing content could also influence this market.
