TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Supply Chain
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Supply Chain - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 22, 2026
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During AeroVironment's upcoming earnings call, participants will discuss various topics related to the company's business and operations. The specific phrases mentioned during the call will determine the outcomes of several markets, making the call a focal point for those tracking AeroVironment's strategic directions and priorities.
The event centers on whether specific phrases are uttered by any AeroVironment representative during their next live earnings call or official broadcast, including Q+A sessions. Each market corresponds to a unique phrase or set of phrases; resolution occurs by verifying their occurrence through video recordings or, if necessary, transcripts from news publications listed in the contract. Payouts depend on the exact phrase, or its plural/possessive forms, being used—grammatical or tense variations do not count. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with AeroVironment, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The markets collectively gauge potential discussion topics, strategic emphasis, and terminology usage during the call.
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Currently, this market reflects what traders believe is most likely to be discussed during AeroVironment's next earnings call. Often, prediction markets can offer a more nuanced view than simple 'buy' or 'sell' ratings from analysts, as they allow for a wider range of potential outcomes to be priced in. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations can highlight areas where the crowd anticipates surprises or sees risks that traditional analysis may overlook.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the demand for a particular outcome, the higher its price will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment surrounding AeroVironment’s upcoming earnings call.
This market resolves around Dec 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be determined by a review of the official transcript of AeroVironment’s earnings call to identify whether the statements covered in this market were actually made. The outcome will be based on the content of the call itself, as publicly released by AeroVironment, and not on any interpretation or secondary sources. Traders should monitor the official release for the definitive resolution of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Any pre-earnings announcements from AeroVironment, such as revenue warnings or positive guidance updates, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Broader market trends affecting the aerospace and defense industry could also influence trading activity. Unexpected news related to AeroVironment’s key competitors or changes in government contracts could also be catalysts. Finally, analyst reports released before the earnings call may impact sentiment and drive trading volume in this market.