TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the professional EFL Championship soccer match between Watford FC and Derby County FC scheduled for February 21, 2026. The markets assess three mutually exclusive outcomes: a Watford win, a Derby win, or a draw, all evaluated at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time (regular play only).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket's draw market resolves YES on full game cancellation with no make-up, while Kalshi's Tie market does not explicitly address this edge case, creating potential settlement divergence in a low-probability but material scenario.Hero Tip:
Monitor cancellation risk for this fixture. If you believe cancellation is likely, Polymarket's draw market offers better odds for that outcome. For normal play scenarios (game occurs), both platforms are logically aligned. Confirm Kalshi's cancellation protocol with their support team before committing capital.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets: Watford Win (YES if Watford wins, NO otherwise), Derby Win (YES if Derby wins, NO otherwise), and Draw (YES if draw, NO otherwise). All three resolve NO on postponement until completion. Critically, Draw resolves YES if game is canceled entirely with no make-up. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time only. Source: EFL.com.Kalshi:
Three outcome-based markets covering Watford Win, Tie, and Derby Win, all resolving YES if that outcome occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. No explicit cancellation clause provided for any market. Scope: 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excludes extra time and penalties. Source: EFL Championship.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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