TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 8:25 AM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Carmen Lopez Martinez and Gabriela maria Vancea in the W35 Baza, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carmen Lopez Martinez' if Carmen Lopez Martinez advances against Gabriela maria Vancea. This market will resolve to 'Gabriela maria Vancea' if Gabriela maria Vancea advances against Carmen Lopez Martinez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Carmen Lopez Martinez and Gabriela maria Vancea in the W35 Baza, Qualifying, originally scheduled for September 28, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carmen Lopez Martinez' if Carmen Lopez Martinez advances against Gabriela maria Vancea. This market will resolve to 'Gabriela maria Vancea' if Gabriela maria Vancea advances against Carmen Lopez Martinez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s odds are inaccurate, they can take the opposite position, driving the price on Polymarket to reflect that collective view. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand in each venue.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price adjusts to reflect the collective probability assigned by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. Higher demand for shares in a particular outcome will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived chance of success.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will be determined by the official outcome of the Lopez Martinez vs Vancea match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the result against these sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will be entitled to a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 5, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or significant shifts in public opinion, could also play a role. Furthermore, large trades on Polymarket by influential traders could create short-term price movements, reflecting their conviction in a particular outcome. Monitoring these signals can provide valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of this market.