TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 9:57 AM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Stella Maxwell will serve as an official runway model at the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026, with the leading outcome currently at 97.0%. Resolution will be determined by official Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026 documentation confirming her participation as a runway performer. Watch for the official model lineup announcement closer to the 2026 show date to see if Maxwell is included among the confirmed performers.
Kalshi
For each model, resolution requires that the specified person actually appears and performs the runway model role at the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026. Being listed in an official lineup without performing does not qualify. Joint performances with other models count as fulfilling the criterion. Performances qualify even if delayed, shortened, or modified in format, but pre-recorded content does not qualify unless explicitly designated by organizers as fulfilling the role. Rumored announcements, canceled appearances, and performances in different roles do not satisfy the criterion.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to traditional analyst forecasts for the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show models. Unlike political or economic events, there aren't widely published, quantitative predictions from fashion industry analysts regarding specific model selections. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of each model appearing in the show, based on factors like recent campaigns, social media presence, and industry buzz. It offers a unique, real-time perspective on expectations that differs from subjective opinions.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official runway model list for the 2026 Victoria's Secret Fashion Show is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which models were officially confirmed as runway models for the event. The resolution will be based on the official list released by Victoria’s Secret, and any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures for verifying event outcomes. The outcome will be based on the official list published by Victoria's Secret.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Major announcements regarding Victoria’s Secret’s casting choices, new advertising campaigns featuring specific models, or changes in a model’s public profile (such as increased social media engagement or high-profile collaborations) could all impact trading activity. Unexpected news about a model’s availability, such as injuries or scheduling conflicts, could also cause shifts in probabilities. Furthermore, any significant changes in the overall direction or theme of the Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show itself could influence which models are selected.
