TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$143,246,370
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,403,290,006
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,452,035,386
405,032
Markets across
30,543
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,690
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Match Winner
- Polymarket
Match Winner - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 17, 2026
Closed: Jul 17, 2:30 AM EST
Polymarket
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs Cloud9 (+2.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-3.5) vs Cloud9 (+3.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-4.5) vs Cloud9 (+4.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-5.5) vs Cloud9 (+5.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-6.5) vs Cloud9 (+6.5)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-7.5) vs Cloud9 (+7.5)
Intro
This market tracks the total number of rounds played in Map 3 of the Valorant best-of-three match between Sentinels and Cloud9 during VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega. Aggregated across Kalshi, Limitless, and Polymarket, the consensus probability for Over 28.5 rounds stands at 100.0%, with resolution determined by vlr.gg. Watch for the match scheduled on July 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, as the actual Map 3 round count will settle all related markets.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction (both Cloud9 win and Sentinels win resolve to Yes), and scheduled dates diverge across platforms (July 16 vs July 17, 2026). Timeout and forfeit handling also differ materially.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market as written—it is logically unresolvable. For Polymarket and Limitless, confirm the actual scheduled date with vlr.gg or official VCT communications. Polymarket uses a 2-hour vlr.gg window before credible reporting fallback; Limitless has a hard August 17 timeout. Forfeit/disqualification outcomes resolve to the declared winner on Limitless but to 50-50 on most Polymarket markets.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Scheduled July 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. Resolution source is vlr.gg with 2-hour fallback to credible reporting and video evidence. Match winner resolves 50-50 if canceled, delayed >7 days without play, or ends in forfeit/disqualification/walkover. Individual map markets resolve 50-50 if not completed. Games Total (O/U 2.5) resolves 50-50 if match incomplete due to forfeit/disqualification/walkover. Map handicap and round handicap markets resolve 50-50 if map not played to completion or decided by forfeit/disqualification/walkover.
- Kalshi: Scheduled July 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT. Market states: 'If Cloud9 wins...then resolves to Yes. If Sentinels wins...then resolves to Yes.' This is a logical contradiction—both outcomes cannot resolve to Yes simultaneously. No timeout, cancellation, or forfeit logic provided.
- Limitless: Scheduled July 17, 2026 (date mismatch with Polymarket). Resolves to Yes if named team wins. If either team loses by forfeit/disqualification/walkover, resolves to the declared winner (not 50-50). Hard timeout: if no official result by August 17, 2026 23:59 UTC, resolves to Other.
Polymarket
This market refers to the Valorant match between Sentinels and Cloud9 in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega, initially scheduled for July 16 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Sentinels" if Sentinels win the match against Cloud9. This market will resolve to "Cloud9" if Cloud9 win the match against Sentinels. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
Resolution is based on the official match result published by the governing body or tournament organizer. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of the originally scheduled start time (July 16, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT), the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match is cancelled before play begins or forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, the market resolves according to the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.
Limitless
This market refers to the match between Sentinels and Cloud9 in the VCT Americas Stage 2 2026, scheduled for Jul 17, 2026. This market resolves to "YES" if the team named in the title wins in the specified match. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "NO." If either team loses by forfeit, disqualification, or walkover for any reason, this market will resolve to the team declared the winner, regardless of whether the match has started or when the decision is made. If the match is not completed with an official result by August 17, 2026, 23:59 UTC, the market will resolve to "Other."
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on internal models and manage risk through margin; prediction markets derive prices from live trader consensus, where participants directly stake capital on outcomes. This market-driven approach often reflects real-time information faster than sportsbook adjustments. Prediction market odds tend to be sharper for niche or fast-moving events because traders compete on accuracy rather than volume. However, sportsbook odds may offer tighter spreads on major events due to higher liquidity. Comparing both sources gives you a fuller picture of where the broader market stands on this matchup.
