TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$277,664,645
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,114,870
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,379,707,856
581,715
Markets across
14,439
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,118
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the Valorant match between Gentle Mates and Natus Vincere in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for April 15 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Gentle Mates" if Gentle Mates win the match against Natus Vincere. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Gentle Mates. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution rules are logically contradictory and render the market fundamentally unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves YES if either Natus Vincere wins OR Gentle Mates wins, which means the market resolves YES for all possible outcomes. Polymarket provides coherent binary resolution logic where the market resolves to the match winner, with clear tie-breaking and cancellation rules.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's match winner market — it contains a logical contradiction that makes it unresolvable. The rule 'resolves YES if Natus Vincere wins' AND 'resolves YES if Gentle Mates wins' means YES is guaranteed regardless of outcome. Polymarket's markets (match winner, map winners, totals, and handicaps) all use consistent, resolvable logic based on vlr.gg as the primary source.Critical Divergence Points:
Kalshi:
Outlier: Contains a logical contradiction in the match winner market. The rules state 'If Natus Vincere wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes' AND 'If Gentle Mates wins the match, then the market resolves to Yes.' Since one of these two teams must win, the market resolves YES in all scenarios, making it unresolvable as a binary prediction market.Polymarket:
Aligned with coherent resolution logic: Provides six distinct, logically consistent markets. The primary match winner market resolves to 'Gentle Mates' if Gentle Mates win, 'Natus Vincere' if Natus Vincere win, and 50-50 for cancellation, tie, delay beyond 7 days, or pre-match forfeiture. Map-specific, totals, and handicap markets all follow the same coherent structure with vlr.gg as the primary source and credible reporting as fallback within 2 hours of conclusion.
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